Big Bash Best Bet – Phase 2 Begins Soon

We’re about half-way through the tournament and that’s usually a good time to review any futures position, but it is doubly so because we are about to enter Phase 2 of the competition. In my original post about the Big Bash HERE I mentioned that I break the tournament up into 3 phases. Phase 1 corresponds with the Ashes Test Series, which winds up today with Australia winning 4-0.

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Phase 2 begins when the ODI players are taken into camp and pulled out of the tournament, while the Test players who didn’t make the ODI team are selected for their Big Bash franchises. It will happen in the next few days and it causes a significant shift in the form lines every year due to this disruption to Big Bash team rosters. Studying it closely and being aware of this disruption has been an essential part of ensuring profitable Futures Trading for this tournament each year.

But before we have a look at the team changes let’s have a quick peek at the ladder and the form lines so far :-

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As you can see, my pick the Melbourne Renegades are sitting pretty with 4 wins and just 1 loss. The Net Run Rate is not spectacular though so I might need 2 wins out of their remaining 5 games to guarantee a finals placing, but even just 1 win might be enough depending on other results. It is very unusual this year in that there are 4 clearly strong teams and 4 clearly weak ones, where in the past there has often been a bit of a log-jam around 4th and 5th place. The big surprise is the flop of the Melbourne Stars. Winless after 4 games many expected them to be one of the top 2 teams.

Here is the futures betting market for the Tournament Winner :-

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As you can see, my pick the Melbourne Renegades is now clear favourite to win and this would normally be a good time to hedge, lock in some profit or even trade out – Especially with the form lines about to be disrupted due to the start of Phase 2. More on that later.

Let’s have a look at the expected team changes :-

Melbourne Renegades

IN : None
OUT : Aaron Finch

Assessment : Losing a strong batsman and captain, but Cameron White and Brad Hodge have extensive captaincy experience to fill the gap.

Adelaide Strikers

IN : None
OUT : Travis Head

Assessment : This is a big loss, their captain and best batsman will leave a big hole.

Perth Scorchers

IN : Shaun Marsh, Cameron Bancroft
OUT : Andrew Tye, Jhye Richardson, David Willey

Assessment : The most disrupted team gets strength in batting at the expense of bowling.

Brisbane Heat

IN : None
OUT : Chris Lynn

Assessment : Definitely a nett loss of their most destructive batsman.

Hobart Hurricanes

IN : None
OUT : None

Assessment : This is possibly a slight positive as this team won’t be disrupted.

Sydney Thunder

IN : Usman Khawaja
OUT : Jos Butler

Assessment : Probably a net positive here for the Thunder with an open international spot.

Melbourne Stars

IN: Peter Handscomb
OUT : Marcus Stoinis, Adam Zampa

Assessment : Hard to believe things are likely to get worse for the Stars.

Sydney Sixers

IN : Nathan Lyon, Jackson Bird
OUT : Jason Roy, Sam Billings

Assessment : Two quality bowlers to come in at the expense of two under-performing English bats. This will open up 2 international slots but with 5 losses from 5 already it may be too late.

So all up we can see that most teams will be affected in some way. The top 4 teams on the ladder will all be negatively impacted. The two Sydney teams are likely to see some improvement and Hobart still have a hope to scraping into the finals too if they can get their act together. The international slots are the ones to watch. We have seen in the past that quality internationals can come in from “Left Field” and have a huge impact. You only have to take note of the fact that 3 of the top 4 teams have employed a sub-continent spinner and you can see what one quality international can do for a team.

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I had originally claimed that I was going to look to hedge my bet on Melbourne Renegades to Make the Finals (made at 1.70) and lay off my bet once they got short in the betting. This may not be possible with the betting markets as they currently are so I will probably let it ride. If they drop tonite’s game I might look to put together a multi-bet on their last 3 games (backing their 3 opponents “All-Up”) as a way of cheaply covering against a possible form reversal but I doubt that will be necessary.

Good luck to you if you’re having a bet
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