This post serves as a dire warning to be cautious.
The boundaries of the global economy have been set; Trump cannot raise tariffs and must make a truce with China to avoid global collapse. I'm not confident the "truce" will amount to anything, as Trump's pattern of behavior suggests that he will have his 4th of July celebration, followed by a change of heart when he sees that china won't relax and go back to business as usual. This is the most defining part of Trump's presidency, his predictable and repeating change of heart.
The gauntlet was already thrown down by Trump, he can't pick it back up at this point and hope that all the consequences will be undone; they can't be. The damage has been done and continues to unfold domestically and abroad, and Trump is in fact viewed on the world stage as being unstable, which is reason enough for the world to remain on high alert and continue creating contingency plans.
The truce itself means very little, aside from acknowledging that there is in fact a trade war (duh), one that will become a currency war, but the Federal reserve are now left in the lurch and absolutely must cut interest rates if they hope to keep the stock market alive, which is the only market left that is doing "well," even if it is off the rails and behaving like a drug addict. If the fed does not refill the prescription for the stock market, there will be dire consequences for the Stock Market by or before the end of July. Both the white house and the Federal Reserve are working in sync to juggle hype back and forth, promising and promising traders and investors that relief is coming, but now the market is realizing that cold turkey is the flavor of the year, and their drug dealer (federal reserve) is holding out on them.
I've been writing posts for the past year putting out the warning that people should be getting their affairs in order to prepare for a bad economic reset, and harvest time is clearly over now and it's not looking like we have much time left; six months at the very latest. It's not just the data and the numbers that are aligning; if you have your finger on the pulse of the economy you can feel that pulse becoming more erratic and unstable.
This post isn't financial advice, it is merely opinion, and I write only out of a sense of duty to warn others who might not see the train coming for them. Thank you for reading. shares and comments are always welcome.