Bitcoin's recent price action can be mostly attributed to investors moving to safety. The world is currently waiting in limbo for November 3 to come and go, which will ultimately determine whether the world's two largest economies will get back to business or not.
China is one of those countries, and the USA is the other. If Trump wins on November 3 2020, then the markets are expecting another 4 years of trade wars, as China will not work with Trump. If Biden wins, the markets expect trade deals to smooth over with China in 2021, which will allow the world economy to fire on all cylinders again. That isn't the opinion of the left or right, that's what the markets are pricing in, including the Bitcoin markets.
The thing is, if you invest based on how you feel about the politics, you're betting against yourself. If instead you invest based on the reality of what's taking place, then you have a chance. Mainstream media on the left and right in the USA demonize people on the other side so effectively that even if the accusations of Trump or Biden being a criminal are disproven, those brainwashed will still be convinced otherwise. They feel it in their gut that somehow Trump or Biden are evil, which is a testament to how much power the media (i.e. Fox, MSNBC, CNN) have over their viewers. It's in many ways the religion of the 21st century.
Regardless of your beliefs or leanings, there are real consequences for who gets elected in 2 days. One of the big fights involves infrastructure. The USA's infrastructure is falling apart, some of it a century old or even older, and there is literally not enough materials above ground at this time to replace it all. The cost will be enormous. The democrats and republicans have the cost pegged at 100 Trillion or higher for 10-20 years worth of rebuilding. The fight for who gets to rebuild is between large industries and corporations sitting on either the republican or democratic side. these large entities rule both parties. Sitting above them are the banks, who benefit no matter which side wins.
On the democratic side they fight to replace the infrastructure with modern forms of energy, while on the republican side they fight to replace the old infrastructure with more of the same. Whichever side you sit on, its going to cost a lot, and the US can only go into more debt either way. But the alternative is collapsing slowing into a third world country, and if the new infrastructure is antiquated 50 years from now, too bad but the decision was already made on November 3, 2020.
The big difference between a Trump and Biden win will come down to where the inflation goes. There is going to be massive amounts of inflation regardless of who wins, but where that inflation goes will depend on which corporations and industries win on November 3, because that is what the People of the USA are voting for, at least it is the most consequential thing they are voting for.
Bitcoin will react on November 3 as a contrarian signal in the short term, I'm pretty sure of it. A Biden win is positive for the global economy, which may not be so positive for Bitcoin in the short term, but will be extremely bullish in the long term. A Trump win may unfold just the opposite. A contested win that causes turmoil will be bad for all markets. Be careful what bet you place, that's all I can say.
