Bottom In Or Not Yet?
Bitcoin is holding up surprisingly well despite the escalating conflict around Iran over the weekend. We saw a small dip, but no real panic or crash. Price action has been relatively smooth, ranging between 62–70k over the past few days.
As long as we hold 62k, the structure looks constructive. A clean break above 70k, and the relief rally mode could kick in again.
On the higher timeframe, though, the weekly chart still shows no clear bullish signals. We’re down roughly 50% from the 126k ATH, with five consecutive red monthly candles. As I mentioned before, it’s possible that 60k was already the bottom but I’d only give that scenario about a 30% probability. More likely, in my view, is one final flush into the low-to-mid 50s before a proper recovery.
That said, I don’t buy into the ultra-bearish targets like 40k or even 30k. With sentiment already sitting at extreme fear levels, a deeper collapse seems unlikely to me.
What’s your take? Relief rally first and then a final selloff or is the bottom already in?
