Can Apple 10x Again?
There aren’t many blue-chip companies that can pull this off. In fact, over the last decade, only NVIDIA and Tesla have done better. Apple achieved a so-called tenbagger within the last ten years, and to be precise, it was actually closer to an 11x. A 900% gain is a tenbagger, and Apple delivered +1,000%. A small detail, maybe. The APR has been about +27% since 2016, which is an outstanding return for long-term investors.
The foundation of this success rests on two pillars: the iPhone and CEO Tim Cook. Tim Cook is expected to retire at some point in the foreseeable future, so it will be interesting to see whether his successor can continue this extraordinary run. The iPhone still generates roughly half of Apple’s revenue, around $400B per year, and the latest Orange model is currently seeing strong success in China, marketed there as “Hermes Orange.”
That said, growth is clearly not what it was 5–10 years ago. The iPhone remains dominant, but it’s no longer a hyper-growth story.
So, is there a chance Apple becomes another tenbagger over the next decade? I’d say it’s not impossible, but the odds are probably not very high, maybe 10%. Still, Apple has a robust product portfolio, an unmatched ecosystem, and if it successfully integrates AI features, which is already underway in collaboration with Alphabet’s Gemini, the company has a very good chance to continue outperforming many peers.
Not spectacular growth maybe,but still a very hard business to bet against.
