With the Semi-Finals going the way that the bookmakers predicted, we go into the final round of fixtures (3rd place play-off and World Cup Final) by looking at the same teams as in the Semi-Finals. In all likelihood, this will mean that we'll be considering the same players as we did in the Semi-Finals with a couple of things worth noting before we begin:
So once again, let's begin with the bookies odds and team attacking and defensive data and subsequently prioritising my review of each team based upon this.
| Team 1 | Odds | Odds | Team 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 2.35 | 3.00 | Morocco |
| Argentina | 2.80 | 2.80 | France |
| Attack | Defence |
|---|---|
Taken from FBref
| Bookies Odds | 2.35 |
| npxG (For) | 6.4 |
| npxG (Against) | 9.1 |
We can see from the stats that the best 2 attacks and defences made it through to the final and Croatia are left with the worst performing defence left in the tournament. Whilst this may act as a slight deterrent, they're also playing against the worst performing attack.
Whilst the bookmakers have Croatia as favourites, this looks like it'll be a close game so options in both defence and attack should be considered.
There's very little change from my Semi-Finals article in defence.
Dominik Livaković (GK $5m) appears to be a solid selection in goal but both Borna Sosa (DEF $3.5m) and Josko Gvardiol (DEF $4m) offer cheaper options if you think they can keep a clean sheet - in fact, whichever full-back options start would be worth considering (Borna Barisic (DEF $4m) being another player to mention.
Once again, Croatia are the first match so you can afford to take a punt or 2 if you've got enough players to sub off any poor performers.
If rotation is on the cards and Mislav Oršić (FWD $5m) and/or Lovro Majer (MID $5m) get a start, they have the best underlying numbers, albeit from a limited number of minutes. Given the difficulty in finding Midfield options, Majer in particular could be worth a look.
Of the more established starting XI, there's little change to last time with Andrej Kramarić (FWD $6m) and Ivan Perišić (MID $7.5m) still leading the way.
| Player | Mins | xG (per 90) | xA (per 90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mislav Oršić | 73 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Lovro Majer | 65 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Kramarić | 414 | 0.35 | 0.04 |
| Ivan Perišić | 579 | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Luka Modrić | 563 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Mateo Kovačić | 545 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Borna Sosa | 424 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Borna Barišić | 120 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Josip Juranović | 600 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bookies Odds | 2.80 |
| npxG (For) | 8.9 |
| npxG (Against) | 2.4 |
Argentina still pose the meanest defence in the tournament but are this time up against the tournament's strongest attack. It's a final that the bookmakers think is too close to call which will make selecting Fantasy options difficult - with a couple of exceptions.
One exception is obviously Argentina's Lionel Messi (FWD $10.5m). He's now the game's top points scorer and has certainly had some "luck" with refereeing decisions.
His teammate Julien Alvarez (FWD $6.5m) now betters him slightly for combined npxG + xA and proved to be a great selection if you opted for him in the Semi-Final. If you're confident that the final will go Argentina's way, a Messi-Alvarez double-up looks solid.
Midfield options are still limited and we'll once again be waiting on team news to see if Ángel Di María (MID $8.5m) gets a start. He's historically been their most creative midfielder but in this World Cup, Alexis Mac Allister (MID $7m), Enzo Fernandez (MID $6m) and Rodrigo De Paul (MID $5m) have been matching his underlying numbers.
In defence, Damien (Emi) Martinez (GK $5.5m) still looks to be a viable option if you're searching for a keeper. The return of defenders Marcos Acuña (DEF $4.5m) and Gonzalo Montiel (DEF $5m) will make choosing a defender prior to team news difficult. Nicolás Tagliafico (DEF $5.5m) did well against Croatia and could keep his place with Nahuel Molina (DEF $5.5m) playing on the opposite flank.
| Player | Mins | xG (per 90) | xA (per 90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez | 362 | 0.65 | 0.03 |
| Lionel Messi | 570 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico | 254 | 0.36 | 0.07 |
| Ángel Di María | 225 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 435 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| Enzo Fernández | 444 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Rodrigo De Paul | 498 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| Nahuel Molina | 477 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Marcos Acuña | 316 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Bookies Odds | 2.80 |
| npxG (For) | 11.6 |
| npxG (Against) | 4.3 |
France continue to post the strongest attack in the tournament and as mentioned before, come up against the strongest defence. Once again, selecting options outside of the obvious will prove tricky and as I mentioned before, there are few exceptions...
...Kylian Mbappé (FWD $11.5m) is one of them. He continues to be France's leading player for Expected Goals (xG) and Assists (xA) combined so far this tournament and is still their top points scorer.
Olivier Giroud (FWD $7.5m) continues to top the France team for Expected Goals and similar to the Alvarez pick for Argentina, if you think France will come out on top then Giroud could be an option.
In Midfield, Adrien Rabiot ($6.5m) is still the most appealing choice in a particularly difficult area.
Defensively, Hugo Lloris (GK $6m) picked up his first clean sheet of the tournament against Morocco but as the most expensive keeper remaining (and a cheaper attacking defensive option in the French ranks), he's not somebody I'll be considering.
Theo Hernandez (DEF $5m) is the aforementioned defender and has posed France's most attacking threat at just $5m.
There's very little appeal elsewhere although Antoine Griezmann (FWD $8.5m) could tempt some and in my opinion has been one of the stand out players of the tournament. These performances haven't equated to Fantasy points though.
| Player | Mins | xG (per 90) | xA (per 90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 478 | 0.64 | 0.25 |
| Olivier Giroud | 379 | 0.81 | 0.02 |
| Antoine Griezmann | 467 | 0.13 | 0.58 |
| Adrien Rabiot | 388 | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Theo Hernández | 438 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Bookies Odds | 3.00 |
| npxG (For) | 5.4 |
| npxG (Against) | 6.8 |
Once again we welcome the underdogs, Morocco. Unhappy about some of the decisions that went against them in their Semi-Final, I feel that this team will be more determined to achieve 3rd place than their Croatian opponents - although I have little to base this thought on.
Assuming that Morocco don't rotate too much, Yassine Bounou (GK $4.5m) looks like a great option in goal and remains the joint top scoring keeper.
Elsewhere in defence, injuries have started to mount with Nayef Aguerd (DEF $4m) narrowly missing out and Romain Saiss (DEF $4.5) hobbling off against France.
I see little reason to risk either of these and Achraf Hakimi (DEF $5m) poses the most attacking threat anyway. Hakimi's certainly a player that I'm considering.
Yahya Attiat Allah (DEF $3.5m) is an alternative if he gets another start.
In attack, Hakim Ziyech (MID $7m) continues to be the most obvious route. His combined xG + xA per 90 of 0.15 isn't great though and is slightly bettered by Youssef En-Nesyri (FWD $5.5m) if you are looking for an alternative up front.
Much like the other teams, there's not a great deal new to write about with Morocco but like Croatia, this being the earlier match means that we can take a bit of a punt.
| Player | Mins | xG (per 90) | xA (per 90) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yahya Attiat Allah | 228 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| Youssef En-Nesyri | 452 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| Hakim Ziyech | 545 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 541 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
As always, I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Will you be replacing some of your Argentina and France options to the earlier game and spreading the risk?
Please share your thoughts with me and join the Hive FPL Discord Channel if you haven't done so already.
