I've been working on a new image style since my last post which I hope you like - a few details on how they're created are shared at the end of this post.
Now that we know the 4 teams in the Semi-Finals, many of us will have a light squad going into the next set of fixtures with the 2 strongest Quarter-Finals favourites (Brazil and Portugal) being eliminated. In addition to this, the ill-natured game between Netherlands and Argentina will mean that additional players are suspended so in my case, I'm already down to 7.
The good news, is that we get 5 Free Transfers and if you're in a similar position to me, this will allow you to field a full team of the (hopefully) best players. (Whilst it's possible to take a 3 point hit to get additional players, unless your squad's in dire straits, I'd avoid doing so.)
Hopefully, this post will help you to identify those best players and we'll do so by using the same approach as in the Quarter-Finals - first by looking at bookies odds, then by looking at attacking and defensive data for the tournament and finally the individual player stats. I'll review each team's players, prioritised by the shortest bookies odds (Bet365).
| Team 1 | Odds | Odds | Team 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 1.83 | 5.00 | Croatia |
| France | 1.53 | 7.50 | Morocco |
| Attack | Defence |
|---|---|
Taken from FBref
I'll include my thoughts on this data within the section of each team.
| Bookies Odds | 1.53 |
| npxG+xAG (For) | 17.9 |
| npxG+xAG (Against) | 5.9 |
France go into their game against Morocco as strong favourites and statistically speaking, it's the best vs. the worst attack left in the competition. Morocco have been praised for their defensive performance so far, having conceded just 1 goal all tournament but the numbers suggest that France have also been superior defensively and that Morocco should have conceded considerably more. I'd be tempted to invest in both France's Attack and Defence if you haven't already done so.
Kylian Mbappé (FWD $11.5m) is France's leading player for Expected Goals (xG) and Assists (xA) combined so far this tournament. He's not only their leading points scorer in Fantasy terms with 39 points, but he's the top scorer in the game and an obvious choice for captain on the 2nd matchday.
Antoine Griezmann (FWD $8.5m) was arguably France's best player against England and his combined xG + xA is only bettered by Mbappe in the French squad.
Olivier Giroud (FWD $7.5m) tops the France team for Expected Goals and if you're confident France can overcome a stubborn Morocco defence, he could be a great replacement if you had previously owned Brazil's Richarlison.
In Midfield, Adrien Rabiot ($6.5m) has the best xG and xA but these are heavily skewed by their match against Australia and he's shown little since to indicate a repeat of this. So France's Midfield is an area I'm unlikely to invest in.
Defensively, Hugo Lloris (GK $6m) is the joint most expensive keeper in the game. Having conceded 1 goal in every match so far, his points tally is low and I'd only go there if you have money to spare.
Theo Hernandez (DEF $5m) has posed France's most attacking threat from Left Back and is a great price at just $5m. Unsurprisingly, he's also their most owned defender and I'd be tempted by a double up.
There is no stand out player to play alongside Hernandez though with Dayot Upamecano (DEF $5.5m) having a poor game against England and it wouldn't come as a surprise if he's dropped as a result of it. I'll be waiting for the lineups to be announced before making a decision and will most likely go for the cheapest starting defender.
| Player | Mins | xG | xA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 388 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Antoine Griezmann | 377 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Olivier Giroud | 315 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 315 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Adrien Rabiot | 388 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Theo Hernández | 348 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Bookies Odds | 1.83 |
| npxG+xAG (For) | 12.6 |
| npxG+xAG (Against) | 3.4 |
Argentina statistically pose the meanest defence left in the tournament and are playing against the team with the weakest attack. We've been here before though with me writing a similar statement in my Quarter-Finals Preview.
So there are certainly possibilities at both ends of the pitch and as with Kylian Mbappé, Argentina's Lionel Messi (FWD $10.5m) has been dominating the stats. He's the game's 2nd top points scorer and he's (metaphorically) head and shoulders above his teammates. At 76.1% ownership, I won't waste anybody's time singing his praises.
One of Julien Alvarez (FWD $6.5m) or Lautaro Martinez (FWD $8m) is likely to lead the line and if you're not tempted by the France double-up in attack, this is an alternative. Both lead the way for xG in the Argentina squad (behind Messi) but at 1.6 (Alvarez) and 1.3 (Martinez) xG, this pales in comparison to Giroud's 3.1 (even when per 90 stats are taken into consideration).
Due to the game's insistence that attacking midfielders are classified as Forwards, we're once again lacking options in Midfield. Rodrigo De Paul (MID $5m) has the best data but Ángel Di María (MID $8.5m) has historically been their most attacking option in this position if he's deemed fit enough to start. Having come off the bench against Netherlands, I think he'll start but once again, I'll be waiting for team news.
In defence, Damien (Emi) Martinez (GK $5.5m) looks to be good value and a viable option if you're searching for a keeper.
Defenders Marcos Acuña (DEF $4.5m) and Gonzalo Montiel (DEF $5m) have provided us with cheap options in previous rounds but are both suspended, paving the way for the more attack minded Nicolás Tagliafico (DEF $5.5m) and Nahuel Molina (DEF $5.5m) to replace them. Tagliafico posting the better numbers so far in Qatar.
| Player | Mins | xG | xA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 480 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Julián Álvarez | 289 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| Lautaro Martínez | 223 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico | 164 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Rodrigo De Paul | 425 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Nahuel Molina | 392 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Ángel Di María | 225 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Marcos Acuña | 316 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Gonzalo Montiel | 88 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Bookies Odds | 5.00 |
| npxG+xAG (For) | 10.5 |
| npxG+xAG (Against) | 12.9 |
Statistically "average" in attack and the worst defence left in the competition, Croatia have managed to keep the same number of Clean Sheets as Argentina whom they face in Tuesday's game.
Whilst the stats suggest avoiding all defensive assets, Dominik Livaković (GK $5m) is the joint top scoring goalkeeper remaining having racked up 5 additional points for saves. It's really the save points that you're relying upon though with Borna Sosa (DEF $3.5m) and Josko Gvardiol (DEF $4m) coming in much cheaper if you think they can keep a clean sheet - none of the options providing significant attacking threat.
With it being the first match, you could afford to take a punt or 2 if you've got enough players to sub off any poor performers.
There are some more interesting options in attack though if you want to spread your bets. Andrej Kramarić (FWD $6m) and Ivan Perišić (MID $7.5m) are posting similar xG + xA with Kramarić's heavily biased towards xG.
If he starts, Mislav Oršić (FWD $5m) has been impressive off the bench and notched up 2 assists. His per 90 numbers eclipse those of his team mates but having played just 28 minutes, he'd be the definition of a punt.
I can't talk about Croatia without mentioning Luke Modric (MID $8.5m) who despite having not made an attacking return, is notching up points for tackles and passes. His underlying xG and xA though are no better than Mateo Kovačić (MID $6.5m) who I doubt any of us are seriously considering.
| Player | Mins | xG | xA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramarić | 343 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| Ivan Perišić | 489 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Luka Modrić | 483 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Mateo Kovačić | 455 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| Mislav Oršić | 28 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Borna Sosa | 379 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Joško Gvardiol | 510 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Bookies Odds | 7.50 |
| npxG+xAG (For) | 8.5 |
| npxG+xAG (Against) | 8.2 |
With an average possession of 32.4% (the lowest of any team in the tournament other than Costa Rica (31.3%), there's once again a sense of Déjà vu when talking about Morocco. It's understandable that they'd go into the match against France as heavy underdogs as they did against Portugal, Spain, Belgium and Croatia.
Few of us will have loaded up on their players and being guaranteed 2 more matches from them, where do we look for options?
Given their single goal conceded all tournament, the defence is the obvious place to start. Yassine Bounou (GK $4.5m) better known as "Bono" is the joint top scoring keeper and has played 1 game fewer than Dominik Livaković. This selection would definitely be considered a gamble though given France's ability to score goals.
From an attacking point of view, the stats suggest that Full Back Yahya Attiat Allah (DEF $3.5m) is Morocco's greatest threat. An assist against Portugal suggest that his stats have been skewed somewhat but at $3.5m, he offers an interesting budget alternative to Borna Sosa.
The most obvious route into Morocco's attack is Hakim Ziyech (MID $7m). His combined xG + xA of 0.9 though (the same as Luka Modric) is bettered by some of France and Argentina's defenders.
If he's given a start, Abdelhamid Sabiri (MID $4m) is also posting some decent underlying numbers and if you're looking to fill a forward spot, the hero against Portugal, Youssef En-Nesyri (FWD $5.5m) appears to be the best option.
Unless you're expecting another major upset though, you might be better focusing your transfers elsewhere.
| Player | Mins | xG | xA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yahya Attiat Allah | 183 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| Abdelhamid Sabiri | 136 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| Hakim Ziyech | 455 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Youssef En-Nesyri | 387 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
I've seen very little of Morocco outside of this World Cup so am working with extremely limited knowledge and appreciate any additional insight that you can provide - on them and on any of the other remaining teams.
Please share your thoughts with me and join the Hive FPL Discord Channel if you haven't done so already.
