As I always tell people the funny thing about a bull market is many don't realize they are in one until it's nearly over. Well that could be the case here as we have seen in just 365 days bitcoin move from $22,000 to it's now all new highs of nearly $71,000. If that's not bullish idk what is!
There are now a number of factors outside of just ETF approvals (but still I'll count that in for this article) in which are proving to be an even more bullish case for Bitcoin. Let's have a look at what those are and what we might expect over the next two years.
Of course this article wouldn't be complete without talking about the halving event. So let's just start with it and get it out of the way.
Every roughly 4 years bitcoin goes through what is known as a halving event in which the inflation of bitcoin being mined is reduced in half. That event is taking place in roughly 20 days in which bitcoins reward will go from 6.25 per block down to 3.125 per block.
Now that bitcoin has ETFs to go with it there's a lot more flexibility to getting fiat currency into the asset. In fact it now has access to trillions more dollars then it ever did before and many of the big boys most likely won't be getting in on it for at least another 2 months.
This coupled with the sheer amount of liquidity in terms of Fiat money that bitcoin now has opens up a very real possibility to massive bull runs still to come in the next 12- 16 months.
With that being a normal catalyst for a bull run which I feel will take us around the $114,000 bitcoin ATH for this bull run there are now other factors that play into this.
With the introduction of major players buying into hedge funds for BTC I could see this sparking upwards of $145,000 this summer of 2024 but it's also expected that the bull run should continue into 2025 and here comes the next reason why that very well might be the case.
The fed has already signaled that the fed is looking to reduce rates three times this year. Now while each of those rates will most likely be a quart point or .25% that's still a welcomed change to investors.
However from what I'm seeing this most likely will not be the case and instead we will be lucky to see one reduction towards November and a big maybe a second in December.
Now of course that depends on inflation rates and if they are slowly going down or not. So far that has not been the case and instead we are seeing it slowly rise back up. If it continues to rise then a rate cut just isn't going to happen.
If those rate cuts start coming in though that means money in banks earning some rather impression 5% yields right now will disappear and well we are kind of seeing that already as I've noticed a few banks reducing their interest rates already. For example Ally bank which was 4.35% is now 4.25% showing that banks are already gearing up for the possible rate reduction.
We also have a number of high rollers such as MicroStrategy and other whales that continue to accumulate more and more bitcoin. This is another driving factor that's increasing the prices of bitcoin.
It's clear that this bull run has a lot of money behind it and not so much a fad like we have seen in the past.
What I mean by that is the 2017 rally had layer 2 Ethereum tokens that primarily drove the price. Then 2020 rally had primarily NFTs that drove the rally and hype. But this time, this time it's more about core fundamentals of inflows of money and it's not center around one hype factor.
Instead it's multiple hype factors, inflows of money and more!
Where do you think BTC price will be by this summer and end of year?
