To CAPITULATE or NOT to CAPITULATE? That is the question. - Part 1:...

And it is a question which has occupied a lot of my time lately.

I have spent many hours reading and analysing the charts, trying to find the answer. I have to keep reminding myself of important factors like:

TA is only a guideline, look beyond TA
Don't get caught up in bullish hype
Don't confuse short-term performance with long-term performance

I've written a fair amount about capitulation recently. I have repeatedly said that I'm still waiting for a new low in this cycle, but I have also expressed my doubts and suggested other options. I strongly suggest reading this post which details those options: The NEED for CRYPTO to CAPITULATE

With the predicted window for the crypto capitulation "bounce" rapidly closing, I am starting to entertain legitimate doubt with regard to the predicted capitulation event. I am increasingly growing fond of the "Capitulation already happened and most people missed it" scenario which I described in the recommended post linked to above.

I also showed in "The time to CAPITULATE is NOW!" why, from a TA perspective, capitulation should be taking place already. In
The NEED for CRYPTO to CAPITULATE I showed how we were a mere $80 away from my predicted Capitulation point for BTC. As I said in that post:

"that’s well within the margin of error and the limits of TA accuracy!"

From https://mentormarket.io/bitbrain/the-need-to-for-crypto-to-capitulate/

That $80 gap keeps widening and is now over $800 wide and growing steadily. To put that into perspective, that's about 20% of the total BTC price. Here you can see what it looks like at the time of writing this post.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

When in doubt...

I love the phrase "when in doubt, zoom out" when talking about crypto charts. Usually I use it to inspire confidence in those who doubt the future growth of cryptocurrencies, but it applies equally well to analysing crypto performance when the short-term information is difficult to read.

So that is what I ended up doing in an attempt to answer the capitulation question.

The Answer:

Lies in the long-term charts, at least, that is what I believe. What do you think the answer is? I don't want to spoil things by giving my answer yet, that will come tomorrow. In the meantime I would like to hear your thoughts on the subject:

Do you still expect capitulation?
Have your views changed on that subject?
How certain are you?

Tomorrow I will give my answers to those questions, and I will show you why I think what I do. (So that you can make up your own minds - you know I work!) I'm not purposefully delaying my answer to generate anticipation; I have several charts to show you, so I want to make it a post of it's own - where the information I present will not get lost in the clutter of this introductory post.

Be sure to drop by again tomorrow to see my latest information about capitulation (or the possible lack thereof).