The articles I linked to about Bitcoin halving explain the approach of dealing with BTC mainly in terms of supply.

I'm not sure why you consider a run prediction to be "clearly cyclic" - altcoins tend to run up in price faster than BTC during bullish times. I didn't link that to a cycle.

Listen to whomever you wish - I only lead horses to water. If they'd then choose to rather drink from the poisoned chalice of sheep thinking, the at least I know I tried.