Now that a little over a week has passed since the controversial bitcoin split, I feel it's time to address basic differences in vision as well as talk about what us small fish should do to come out with a positive return. Recent news and rumors suggest that Segwit2x, the NYA proposal that gained a huge consensus throughout the bitcoin community is now being threatened, but not by a small minority that wishes to lead bitcoin on a different path. This time it's being threatened by the Core team. Yes, the Core Dev team with complete control over Bitcoin's code commits are on a path to possibly ignore the 2x part of Segwit2x.
If you do some digging on the Core team, you'll find that almost every single member, and more importantly any dev that has commit permission, is on a single payroll under the company BlockStream. BlockStream has been paying the core dev's salary to keep them working on the code and, although in no way does their public contract say they must do what BlockStream wants them to do, there's certainly a lot of pressure on the Core devs to do just that. Furthermore, on Blockstream's Core Roadmap for development on Bitcoin, it says absolutely nothing about the increase in block size as noted in SegWit2x. This leads me to believe in the possibility that, come November when the 2X part is supposed to kick in, the Core devs will not commit leading to yet another split in the bitcoin network leaving three separate chains; Bitcoin(SegWit2x), Bitcoin Core(SegWit), and Bitcoin Cash.
I'm not a big fan of splits when it comes to Bitcoin because of how damaging it can be to it's public image, especially when mainstream panic adoption due to world events such as North Korea's aggressive actions is right around the corner. Even now Bitcoin's price has been on a semi-steady climb up from about $3,500 USD last week to about $4,300 USD today. Will it keep climbing? Will it correct? Will it crash or will it shoot for the moon? I say do what has always been good for the small fish - Diversify.
Step 1 - Don't Drop Your Alt Bags!
Currently, alt-coins are dropping like a rock in water due to the aggressive bulls on Bitcoin, but does that mean their raw value is dropping? Certainly not, rather their worth in terms of bitcoin has dropped. From one small fish to another, I hope you don't keep all your crypto in one coin. The best way to stay afloat is to diversify, buy a handful of alts while keeping about 1/3 - 1/2 of your coin in Bitcoin. Looking at charts for the past couple of days I can see why a lot of us are dropping out of alts to take up a seat on the Bitcoin rocket-launch to the moon, but stop and think for a second. Look at the facts.
A) You're most likely selling your bags at a loss of Bitcoin
B) The real value behind your alts hasn't changed much (i.e. your country's currency)
Therefore, HODL for dear life. I know emotions can run high and being a small fish means losing everything you have in a single moment, but patience is a small fishes biggest asset. When things look dark, wait. When things look good, keep swimming. It's simple to say, but hard to practice. Keep at it.
Step 2 - Hedge Your Bitcoin!
Because of the current Bitcoin split and the possibility of yet another split in the near future, We're all left wondering which one will come out on top. When it comes to technical aspects of each (Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash), each works well in its own right, but there are better coins out there that do what bitcoin does faster, more efficiently, and more securely but don't have the marketing or the name recognition of the mass populace. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin/Bitcoin Cash will stay the defacto store of value when it comes to crypto. However, whichever one works better and markets themselves better will come out on top. So far, Bitcoin is running away with the race due to it's existing and expansive adoption worldwide while Bitcoin Cash has to fight an uphill battle. There's a ridiculous amount of censorship on /r/bitcoin, merchants would need to download two separate-yet-almost-identical blockchains to accept both kinds of Bitcoin, and Core has the company connections to expand their influence. However, the code for Bitcoin(SegWit) is complicated, untested in a large-scale heavy-traffic environment, and the real fix for the high fees has yet to come with it's second software layer. Bitcoin Cash used a very simple update to fix the transaction cap and high fees, which seem to have worked quite well. Bitcoin Cash still has a difficulty adjustment to wait out, but soon it will be profitable to mine as well as super cheap to use to transfer value. In short, Bitcoin Core went with a very complicated, untested, unproven update that still needs more complicated code added to fix traffic congestion and high fees(Which currently sit around $3 for a single transaction) while Bitcoin Cash used Occam's Razor and ended up with a very cheap and simple update that avoids untested and complicated code.
In conclusion, when it comes to which coin will come out on top, it's up in the air. November will be an important month for the code-aspect of Bitcoin, but world events and marketing are a huge factor in deciding which one will reign supreme. My advice for the many small fish in the crypto-ocean is this. Hodl your Bitcoin, Hodl your Bitcoin Cash, and go 50-50 in Bitcoin/Bitcoin Cash in terms of real-world value. Personally I'm leaning more towards Bitcoin Cash because I believe when it comes to anything science-based, Occam's Razor should be followed every step of the way, especially in the realm of computer science. Plus, being able to get around 10x full Bitcoin Cash coins for my Bitcoin coins is nice.
