Kosovo hosts Azerbaijan in a winner-takes-all contest to be promoted to League C. The hosts need just 1 point to secure the prize to move up to the third tier of the UEFA Nations League. With three wins from their five matches this campaign (D2), Kosovo deserves a bit of favouritism. Kosovo has not qualified for any World Cup or European Championships since their independence. Victory (or a draw) here would surely be the greatest-ever success for the Kosovan national football team. However, the nation that stands between them and their moment of glory, Azerbaijan, are the only team not yet to be beaten by Kosovo in the group. The reverse fixture in Baku, a scrappy 0-0 affair with just two shots on goal between the two sides, was their first and only meeting. It is sure to be an intriguing contest of high-scoring attack versus rock-solid defense at both ends of the pitch, with both nations having conceded just two goals each and racking up 18 goals between them throughout the campaign.
Pick: (2 units) Kosovo/Azerbaijan Over 2
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Lithuania at Serbia - International UEFA Nations - League C
It’s crunch time for Serbia (W3, D2) in the 2018/19 UEFA Nations League’s final round of League C, Group 4 fixtures. They face the soon to be relegated Lithuania in what should be a formality of a match. A win for Serbia will be enough to absolutely guarantee promotion. The hosts are a force to be reckoned with on home turf, with October 2015 being the last time any Serbia team lost at home. The nation’s home record since then reads W6, D4, L0, with over two-thirds of those ten matches seeing both teams score and/or over 2.5 goals scored in total. For their part, the League D bound visitors have scored just two goals in their five UNL matches to date, losing three of them to nil. Where the most optimistic Lithuania fans are concerned, it is worth noting that Lithuania’s only victories (two) since October 2016 have come away from home. As far as the H2H record between the sides is concerned, Serbia have a stranglehold on proceedings to date (W4, L1) winning to nil in four of their five prior matches against Lithuania. We see this trend continuing again. Serbia wins 2-0.
Pick: (2 units) Lithuania/Serbia Under 3
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Romania at Montenegro - International UEFA Nations - League C
Visiting Romania must beat Montenegro here, if they are to stand any chance of a UEFA Nations League promotion and hope Serbia slip up against bottom side Lithuania in League C, Group 4’s other match. Meanwhile, Montenegro can finish in second if they dash the Romanian dreams and grab victory themselves. With three defeats in their last five home games (W1, D1, L3), the hosts will have to improve on that recent poor form if they want to get a positive result here. Notably, Montenegro were losing 1-0 at half-time in each of those three defeats. With a looming threat of relegation if they remain in third (due to the UNL ranking of third-placed teams), Montenegro need a positive result. Heading into this crucial away clash, Romania are yet to lose in 2018 (W6, D3 - friendlies included). Surprisingly, despite going unbeaten in their last four on the road (W2, D2), the 'Tricolorii' have actually conceded first in three of those matches, illustrating the visitors’ ability to fight back and salvage games from losing positions. Romania gets the win.
Pick: (1 unit) Romania pk
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Russia at Sweden - International UEFA Nations - League B
It’s time for the final match in League B, Group 2 of the UEFA Nations League. The situation for a now-safe Sweden is simply ‘win or bust’, as only a victory for Janne Andersson’s men will be enough to see them promoted to League A at Russia’s expense. The Swedes’ 1-0 win in Turkey on the last UNL matchday was an impressive riposte after they lost the reverse game. However, home form remains patchy for Sweden, with the 1958 World Cup finalists have only won once in their last seven home games (W1, D4, L2). That said, March 2013 remains the last time any Sweden side failed to score in a competitive (non-friendly) home match. Over the 17 competitive home games Sweden have played and scored in since, they have averaged 2.41 goals per match. Russia, control their own destiny and need only a draw to go up. Though unbeaten in UNL so far (W2, D1), they still have somewhat of a shaky recent history in away matches. We think Russia can hold onto at least a draw and possibly pull out the upset.
Pick: (1 unit) Russia +½
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Poland at Portugal - International UEFA Nations - League A
Current European champions Portugal will have a chance to celebrate their qualification for the semi-finals of the inaugural UEFA Nations League, as they take on the already-relegated Poland in this final match-day clash. Portugal, who are expected to be confirmed as hosts of next summer’s four-team knockout finals, held Italy to a 0-0 away draw on Saturday to win League A’s Group 3 and become the first team to book their place in the final four. They are now guaranteed a Euro 2020 play-off spot, should they fail to make it through regular qualifying. Fernando Santos’ side have largely been unaffected by Cristiano Ronaldo’s lengthy absence and will look to extend their unbeaten run to six games (W3, D2). A poor haul of just one point from their opening three matches has seen Poland drop into League B. Their fate sealed by last month’s 1-0 defeat at home to Italy. Boss Jerzy Brzęczek and his squad now head to Guimarães having stretched their winless run to five games (D2, L3) with a 1-0 friendly loss to the Czech Republic last week. This will be the 11th competitive meeting between the pair, with Portugal registering four wins to Poland’s three (three draws). October’s reverse fixture ended in a 3-2 victory for the Portuguese.
Pick: (1 unit) Portugal -1
