Introducing HivePredict: Prediction Markets on the Hive Blockchain (Open Beta)
I've been building something I'm excited to share with the community. HivePredict is a prediction market platform built entirely on Hive and it's now live in open beta at hivepredict.app.
In all honesty, this is probably the most elaborate app I've built on Hive to date (probably won't be the last).
What is it?
HivePredict lets you create and participate in prediction markets using HIVE or HBD. Think of it as "put your money where your mouth is" for any question with a yes/no answer:
- Will BTC hit $100k by June?
- Will the Lakers beat the Celtics tonight?
- Will HIVE be above $0.50 by end of year?
It uses a parimutuel pooling model so there are no order books, no market makers. You pick a side (YES or NO), stake your tokens into a shared pool, and if your side wins, you split the losing side's tokens proportionally. Simple.
Every single action like market creation, predictions, resolutions, payouts is recorded on-chain as custom_json operations. The blockchain is the source of truth. The backend is just a read-only indexer. This means:
- Full transparency. Every bet, every payout is publicly auditable.
- No custody risk. Tokens are transferred directly to the platform account via standard Hive transfers, not locked in some opaque smart contract.
- Existing identity. Your Hive account IS your HivePredict account. No new signups. Just connect with HiveKeychain or Hivesigner.
Key Features
Anti-whale design. Every market has a per-account stake cap. Someone with 500,000 HIVE has the same maximum exposure as someone with 200. Combined with account eligibility requirements (minimum age, reputation, and posting history), this keeps things fair.
Auto-resolution. Crypto price markets are auto-resolved using CoinGecko spot prices. Sports markets (NBA, NFL, NRL, AFL, NHL, MLB, Soccer) are auto-resolved using The Odds API. No waiting around for a human to call the result, the system checks automatically once the resolution time passes.
Sports betting types. Match winner, point spread, and over/under total, all supported with auto-resolution for major leagues. Manual markets are also available for anything else (props, tennis, golf, F1, etc.).
Creator incentive. Market creators must pick a side (skin in the game), and they earn a small bonus (0.5% of their winnings) if their side wins.
How to Participate
To place a prediction (free, no creation fee):
- Go to hivepredict.app
- Log in with HiveKeychain or Hivesigner
- Browse the markets and pick one
- Choose YES or NO, enter your stake, confirm in Keychain
- Wait for the result
To create a market (10 HBD or 25 HIVE creation fee):
- Click "Create Market"
- Choose your market type (manual yes/no, auto crypto price, auto sports, etc.)
- Set your question, resolution criteria, timing, and stake cap
- Pick your side and confirm
Eligibility requirements: Your Hive account must be at least 30 days old, have a reputation of 25+, and at least 5 posts. This is to prevent sybil abuse, not to gatekeep.
Fee Structure
| Fee | Amount | When |
|---|---|---|
| Market creation | 10 HBD or 25 HIVE | On creation |
| Platform fee | 3% of total pool | On resolution |
| Creator bonus | 0.5% of creator's winnings | If creator wins |
| Placing a prediction | Free (just your stake) | — |
This is a Beta
I want to be upfront: this is an open beta. The core loop works end-to-end (create → predict → resolve → payout), but:
- There may be bugs. If you find one, please let me know in the comments or on Discord.
- The UI is functional but still being polished.
- Market variety is limited right now — I'm seeding initial markets but I need the community to start creating their own.
- Features like market comments, leaderboards, and notifications are planned but not built yet.
- If for whatever reason there is an issue, I will manually intervene to resolve markets and distribute payouts correctly, including refunds if needed. I have a vested interest in making sure this is fair and trustworthy.
Your funds are as safe as any Hive transfer. Payouts are standard blockchain operations, but please treat this as beta software and don't stake more than you're comfortable with.
What's Next
- Leaderboards and user stats
- Market comments / discussion
- Notifications (on-chain and in-app)
- More sports leagues and market types
- Mobile-optimized experience
Try It Out
Head to hivepredict.app, connect your Keychain, and place a prediction. If you create a market, drop the link in the comments. I'd love to see what the community comes up with.
Feedback, bug reports, and ideas are all welcome. This is built for the Hive community and I want it to reflect what you actually want to use.