Markets observe and obey fractal behavior. The challenge is to look at the right time frame and correlate this to structures on other timeframes.
One of the simplest and yet most effective way to measure the current phase of the price structure is to use proportions of prior completed wave structures, and map them proportionately to the current wave structure, taking note of how quickly the stages progress. Only a few stages need to be identified to know the speed at which the cycle is progressing, and more importantly, we can use this information to extrapolate when and where the price will go into the future.
This is exactly what I have done.
Using the previous bubble and subsequent decline, we can understand how quickly the cycle is moving along. For instance, it took 413 days or 59 weeks to go from the then all time high of 1167 to the bottom at 162.
It took 19 weeks to hit the 0.786 fib level, before we had a significant bounce, all the way back to the 0.5 fib level.
The bottom at 162 was important, because it confirms the price action is following expected behaviour - that is, the price must come BACK to test the previous all time high. So the price went from 170 ish, all the way to 1167, and back down again to 170 ish.
The diagram illustrates this including the time it took to reach the first major bounce, as well as the time it took to reach the bottom.
So, taking exactly the same approach for the recent bubble, we draw the fib retracement from the all time high at 20k, all the way back down to the previous all time high of 1167.
We can see that the price has gone up, and come back down a lot quicker, meaning that this particular cycle will not last as long as the last one. We're on the 5th bearish week of a technical 9, and the 9 would yield a 1-4 candle technical bounce which aligns with the previous bubbles bounce area of 0.786 fib level. This means, the level we expect a bounce is 5100 usd ish and the subsequent bounce will be for up to 4 weeks to the 0.5 fib level of just over 10,000.
In order to generate a bounce of such a magnitude, the 9 week countdown has to complete and that is due to complete on March 05th, as of this post, 4 weeks from now.
The top of the bounce will be around the beginning of April, so a safe exit around 9.5k I would say.
Then, it's a very bearish period for the next 4 more months until end of August and the bottom, at 1167.
Even though we bottom out in August, it will take another couple of months of flat or sideways price action, with many fully retracing fake pumps before we reverse back into a sustained bullish market where we will push for a new all time high. This coincides with developments in the space such as Schnorr signatures, more mature Segwit adoption, lightning networks, and of course the Bitcoin Reward Halving in the summer of 2020. Giving us enough room to have another year or longer bull market by the time we hit the halving.
Market's do not bottom by forming V shaped bounces in a bear market. That's what happens in a Bull market.
Markets form bottoms when the media and sentiment of the general public reach a resounding low. This is accompanied with clear disinterest in the crypto-space both from the general public as well as the media. Price action will be flat for many months with several fake pumps fully retracing.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
