Overall, I think all three are long-run for the best of the game. To be clear about where I'm coming from, I was able to refresh the page, purchase 522 packs, and use 78 vouchers, all within the window.

Good post overall! The one distinction I'd make is between buying and opening packs. I've done the former but not the latter, and am holding closed packs for investment purposes. That said, you're right,

LMAO this is why players don't design cards. The first 3 are wildly OP. The last one is the only one I'd think is even partially balanced. Keep in mind the summoners are likely to be 6 mana (the only gap

There's definitely not enough data to fit a sigmoid. My best guess at this point is that it's gonna be pretty linear, with increases in rates leading up to each 1M mark, and then dropping back down right

Yeah, I am a big believer in not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Yes, I think rates will increase towards the end of each million, and especially at the very end of the sale, but I don't

A post on when I think chaos legion packs will sell out, based on their rate since we hit the 7M mark. Hive: Twitter:

I don't think we're halfway through: 7.2M/15M<0.5

The third post in my series about Chaos Legion ROI. Hive: Twitter:

I was just going back through and reading some of your previous posts and came across this one. The thing that always kills me when I see people calculating ROI is saying "I got vouchers for free,

Thanks for your thoughts! The limited usability of vouchers is definitely a negative. Unlike almost any other SL asset, they don't do anything sitting in my account. BUT, I think this is part of what is

I've thought about just saying "screw it" and renting all my cards out at end of season for the high rental prices, but enjoy opening EOS chests so much. And now with the chance of getting packs

Big oof having No-Face as an avatar - a creature who is corrupted by the presence of affluence, consumes and consumes with no regard to his need, and offers fools gold to others in a desire to be liked.

This is to be expected. Honestly, you beat the odds by getting 2 rares. If this kind of pack is disappointing, I'd suggest buying singles. You could have gotten all that and more for $4 (or $3 if you bought

This is a really cool post! I like your simple explanation of the coefficient and some real-world examples. I've given you a follow and look forward to reading your other articles. Holy fuck that is a

I've never bought quest potions; I think I read once that they are very negative EV. I'd advise not buying them. But alchemy and legendary potions I have the opposite advice: literally never open a pack

I just realized I had totally missed the clause in the social media challenge that the 2 is inclusive of both the share a battle post and the social media challenge! I thought each one was a separate 2.

I think my math is right. I said You can see the most likely outcome is 0 legendaries at ~40%. Which aligns with your number (I rounded the 0.7%). Where there might be a miscommunication is me saying by

My post this week on my current investment: vouchers. Hive: Twitter:

Hey Avatar! Do we know about how many play daily in each league? It'd be interesting to see, on average, how many packs should be given out each day to all players (and especially EOS). I'd hope/imagine

The 500 for current airdrops is because the total pool of legendaries has increased. So the chances of getting a specific legendary have gone down. As more and more packs are opened, you'll see the rate