I graduated with my Master’s in Geology in the late 90s, before I moved to the US to pursue higher studies and research. It was a time when the world felt like it was finally opening up, and for many of my friends, that opening was digital. While I was studying rocks, they were studying code. Yes, that was essentially the start of the IT boom in India and elsewhere.
Looking back, the trajectory for some of my friends seemed almost pre-ordained. They rode the wave of the massive IT boom, landing roles that took them to the US, Europe, and beyond. Today, they are mid-to-late-career veterans, having built successful lives on the foundation of that "perfect formula"—get the degree, join the big firm, and climb the ladder. For their entire careers, the logic was ironclad: more code = more revenue = more jobs.
Rate of growth of IT professionals and the recent slow down
But the landscape looks fundamentally different through the eyes of my nephew today, in the mid 2020s.
He is currently pursuing his PhD in Computer Science at the University of Alberta, and he’s facing a job market that is almost unrecognizable compared to the most of my friends in the IT industry entered twenty-five years ago.
When my friends started, they were the architects of the digital revolution. Today, my nephew is entering a world where the very foundation of that revolution—the act of writing code—is being commoditized by AI. He’s not just competing for jobs; he’s trying to identify what "value" even means in an era where an AI agent can, in many cases, out-code a junior engineer without ever taking a lunch break.
The question isn't "How do I get a job?" anymore; the question is, "What can I do that the machine can't?"
I recently watched a video that perfectly captured a feeling many of us in the industry have been sensing but haven't quite articulated: the traditional Indian IT model—the one our parents told us was the "perfect formula" for a stable life—is fundamentally breaking.
I remember the times described in this video, when the path was simple: get an engineering degree, ace your campus placements at a giant like Infosys or TCS, and you were set. But the world has changed. In 2022, companies were hiring 600,000 freshers; by 2024-2025, that number plummeted to just 60,000—the lowest in two decades.
This is a topic close to my heart as in oil and gas industry I also interact with a lot of IT professionals, and we also use the same Indian consultancy firms today, L&T, Infosys etc.
The Old Way: India became an IT superpower through "arbitrage"—billing clients per person, per hour. The more people you deployed, the more money you made.
The AI Disruption: Clients aren't asking "Can we do this cheaper?" anymore; they're asking "Why am I paying for 500 people when an AI agent can do the work?"
The New Formula: We are moving from Revenue = People × Billing Rate to Revenue = Outcomes × AI Leverage.
The "door" isn't closing; it's moving. While traditional IT firms are shrinking, GCCs (like Google, JP Morgan, and Walmart) are treating India as a high-end R&D hub.
These centers contribute nearly 1.8% to India's GDP and are projected to hit $100 billion by 2030.
The Catch: They hire differently. They want fewer people, but with higher standards and better pay.
Current projection of IT hires
I say this from my personal perspective in the oil & gas industry, which is cyclical and matured compared to IT. However, the thought is, IT industry is also maturing and perhaps it can take some of learning from a matured industry. In our industry there is always up and down cycle based on supply and demand, and its ultimate reflection to the price of the product that we sell .... OIL. In the industry we always take safety and job security from the fact that we are in the commodity business that sells a product that the world needs today, and will need for a long time to come. Also AI can't make a map, can't make a seismic section, and can't drill (yes, sure it can help, a lot!). So if I think about the IT perspective from my personal point of view, they are as follows:
Move 1: From Doing to Thinking. AI can code, test, and configure. It cannot navigate ambiguity or sit with a frustrated customer to find the real underlying problem. We need to be architects and strategists, not just operators.
Move 2: Follow the Growth Model. I need to ask myself: Is my company making money by "outsourcing people" or by "delivering outcomes"? I want to be where the outcomes matter.
Move 3: Build Proof, Not Just Credentials. Certifications were great when the question was "Can you do this?" But now AI "does" it. My value lies in "How do I solve a problem AI can't?" I need a portfolio of thinking, not just a list of certificates.
The Indian IT story, or IT story anywhere in the world for the matter, isn't ending, but the syllabus we all memorized is obsolete. It’s time to stop being a "resource" and start being a problem solver.
