It is election season in the United States and media is all over understanding and analysing the 'potential' result. Disclaimer first: I have no clue on how the result of the election will turn out. I know I will vote Harris and all the democratic option down ballot, which is more important in my city. However, to be honest as I live in Texas, my vote doesn't matter much because of the electoral college. Regardless of my voting, Texas will be Red this year too, and that's that. So this post is neither about my political view or prediction. In fact if I am being 100% honest a Republican ticket victory is highly beneficial to my personal gain and it is highly friendly to the industry I work in. That said let us dive into the issue of a particular demographics.
The plot above is from a NY Times article I was reading, titled:
They Used to Be Ahead in the American Economy. Now They’ve Fallen Behind
In 1980, white men without a college degree earned about 7% more than average American worker. I have close friend named Dustin, who is born in Utah, said something to me that I will always remember. It was something his dad said to him. He said you can earn two ways in the work force, either with your body or with your brain, both will get you same amount of money, but one is better for your body than the other. Dustin's dad was a farm worker early on, then in construction, and then a roughneck in the oil field. Dustin is a geoscientist just like me. We both chuckled more recently about his dad comment (his dad is retired now), and said to each other, back in his dad's days, it was true, but it is no longer true in the United States. The chart above showed exact that. White men without a college degree, earn about the same today compared to 1980, but inflation adjusted their true earning is much less compared to the average american workers today, about 12% less. In fact they are the lowest earning demographics in the United States.
I am a capitalist, and I live and thrive in a capitalist economy. However, there is one thing you must understand, in a capitalist economy, the relative value of everything is conveyed with money. It is not just your perception of well being but how you are compared with another citizen is totally based on how much you earn. I do not like this personally, but that is the US capitalism at its best or worst depending on your perspective.
Please understand, the data above and the discussion that will follow is a national averages, there can be pockets of economy where this may not be true. However, as I look around and read/listen/watch, this is a fairly accurate description. That particular demographics in question saw their 'value' in the society drop with every government for the last 40 years.
| Source: All production jobs show decline | Source: Contrast between white and blue collar jobs |
There are multiple reasons for the manufactuing job decline off course (we are not going to get into that), but the fact that it happened and is real, is undeniable. In this backdrop there can be a 'change narrative' in messaging to the people of this demographics.
The first narrative is not easy to implement, and in certain societies very hard and slow to implement. It also goes against the natural instict of the people and they are starting now from behind. It will take them generation to overcome the decline.
The second narrative is the 'victim mentality' and it is easy to communicate, and sounds 'fair'. It matters not whether it is easy or hard to implement, but it is music to the ears for the people. Trump excelled in giving that second message to the American people, and he is incredibly successful in doing so. I have no idea if that would be enough to get him pass the finish line for the second time or not, but if it does, it is this demographics and this message that will do so.
That leads to the recent 3 hr interview of Trump taken by Joe Rogan at the Joe Rogan Experience. Full disclaimer: I do not like Joe Rogan podcast most times, especially this particular episode was painful to listen for me just because of poor quality of the talks and rambling, but it is what it is.
Live Link Episode #2219: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0e9ynAH6hmZIIeOx0SaGQu
Joe Rogan said something here that resonated with me. Joe was answering why Trump is popular. I think Joe nailed it here 100%
JOE ROGAN: You said a lot of wild shit. You said a lot of wild shit, and then CNN, in all their brilliance, by highlighting your wild shit made you much more popular, and they boosted you in the polls, because people were tired of someone talking in this bullshit, pre-prepared politician lingo. And even if they didn’t agree with you, they at least knew, whoever that guy is, that’s him, that’s really him. When you see certain people talk, certain people in the public eye, you don’t know who they are, you have no idea who they are, it’s very difficult, and you see them in conversations, they have these pre-planned answers, they say everything, it’s very rehearsed, you never get to the meat of it.
I watch a lot of CNN, especially during the last four election cycles; and I must say this is 100% correct. With that I am going to stop writing. Good luck to us in 2 weeks or less!
