Tactical Short AUD/USD Ahead of RBA Statement
· Catalyst: RBA Rate Announcement and Statement
· With the AUD/USD exchange rate at levels that has historically drawn concerning comments from the RBA (Deutsche Bank Chart), we consider the RBA event on Tuesday morning to be a potential market mover.
· Last week’s softer than expected CPI inflation number reduces pressure on the RBA to move in line with its central bank peers that are paving the way towards tighter monetary policy conditions.
· Since April 2016, the exchange rate commentary in each of the Monetary Policy Decision Statements have noted that the “lower exchange rate since 2013” has helped the economy in its transition with the caveat that “An appreciating exchange rate” would or could complicate this adjustment. Considering current level of the Australian dollar, we think the RBA may well use this opportunity to express their concern over AUD strength.
· AUD positioning data shows Net AUD longs are now at the highest level since 2016 and in the ‘over stretched’ territory that has coincided with previous sell-offs.
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Source : traderscorner
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