Imagine that after the initiation of the posited SegWit donations on the legacy chain, pools will have difficulty paying out shares to miners, because again the block space opportunity cost will be too high (i.e. expensive) to be filled up instead for taking more donations. So either pools will need to issue IOUs to be settled in the future when the donations taking is dwindling, or the pool must exchange the mined BTC and donations for some altcoin which can be utilized to pay the miners. Hmm.

It would have to be an altcoin without a SegWit booty, so not Litecoin. Preferably the most regulatory compliant altcoin (so no anonymity altcoins qualify), non-congested block space, least exposure to exchanges/pools which are exposed to SegWit losses, and closest in stature to Bitcoin. Would this be why Craig is so confident that BSV will moon?

Should we be mining BSV? Maybe so! After the SegWit attack, Craig’s reputation will rise significantly, so BSV higher stature than BCH. Hmm.

Note BCH is accepted at more (c.f. also) of the mainstream exchanges and pools. Thus might be slightly to possibly significantly more exposed to the coming exchange/pool defaults due to SegWit losses. Note legacy Bitcoin (which does not have the Locktime opcodes added in the omnibus SegWit changes) and BSV (which doesn’t have BCH’s OP_CHECKDATASIG) may not function with non-custodial decentralized exchanges (DEX).[c.f. my solution for this]

Bitcoin.com has a Localbitcoins-like exchange for BCH. Localbitcoins doesn’t mention proof-of-source-of-funds (PoSoF) but Kraken does (c.f. also limits). Bisq is a completely decentralized Localbitcoins-like exchange where the two parties are in a 2-of-2 multisig escrow and I have not yet downloaded it to check if there’s decent liquidity:

https://docs.bisq.network/exchange/whitepaper.html
https://bisq.network/faq/#preventing-arbitrator-collusion
https://docs.bisq.network/index.html

I can’t find any major exchanges with legacy cold wallets:

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/wallet/Binance-coldwallet
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/wallet/Bitfinex-coldwallet
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/wallet/Bitstamp-coldwallet
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/wallet/Bittrex-coldwallet

EDIT: the stock-to-flows valuation model of a proof-of-work cryptocurrency is based on the cost of mining production. The marginal cost of mining rises to match the rise in mining rewards. Yet the average mining production costs rise faster than marginal cost, as the average efficiency of the mining hardware declines if price is rising very fast thus making a lot of inefficient mining hardware profitable again. Consequently hashrate rises slower and the most efficient mining hardware rises in value faster than marginal cost and mining rewards.

So it might be best to invest in SHA256 ASICs before the May 2020 halving (actually asap before they’re sold out as price starts to rise quickly), because the hardware may appreciate faster than the price of Bitcoin! And hardware can be sold for fiat without an exchange. But the problem is the income taxes due on Bitcoin mined before the hardware is sold, unless you’re in a tax-free jurisdiction. Don’t forget though my recently epiphany that hodling legacy Bitcoin through the halving will also likely incur a huge, involuntary income (not capital gains!) tax liability for the airdropped Core tokens at their pre-crash prices.

With the mining rewards rising to insane levels at the instant of the start of the posited SegWit “ANYONECANSPEND” donations redeeming because each block will redeems 100s or 1000s of Bitcoin donations as extra mining rewards (which what this blog is about), I suppose it might be plausible that GPUs become profitable for mining Bitcoin again until the most lucrative (e.g. large balances) of the SegWit donations have all been redeemed.

Don’t forget I recently reiterated that mining hardware is the tangible mass of a proof-of-work cryptocurrency, so thus it is a monetary component as also is separately the informational value stored in the private keys (i.e. both components have a monetary role to play!):

[…] suddenly no longer think so. It would require that the Herculean tangible mass of Bitcoin and the $billions in mining costs expended since January 2009 would suddenly “go poof” and disappear, because they can’t be re-purposed to anything else. Bitcoin is just as tangible as gold, yet additionally has the incredibly important increase in utility because the transferable value is information and detached from the tangible mass.

Consequently the security of proof-of-work altcoins is going to become very vulnerable to 50+% attack with ASICs as the most efficient hardware is pulled to the blockchains that have the fastest rising mining rewards, i.e. blockchains with huge SegWit booties for miners. Perhaps this is the basis of Craig Wright’s warning about destroying the altcoins. So in this model, Litecoin (and GRS) would also be rising fast in price if SegWit is also forced to fork-off for those other blockchains that added SegWit. Yet there’s a limited supply of ASICs and so not even all the SegWit altcoins will be immune to 50+% attacks.

Thus I expect legacy Bitcoin to skyrocket after the initial reaction dip at the inception of the SegWit donations redeeming, and BSV’s rise will accelerate as legacy mining pools figure out they need a non-congested, secure altcoin to pay out mining shares. And the entire world looks for such given the legacy Bitcoin blocks will be congested with transaction fees at nosebleed levels, and Core will have a cratered hashrate with difficulty stuck (perhaps forever) at a very high level and thus new blocks found very infrequently. As Craig 50+% attacks other altcoins one-by-one to crash their price and hashrate, they too will become stuck at a too high difficulty, not find blocks frequently enough and thus collapse in death spirals. Some altcoins will turn to developer centralization to reset difficulty levels, but this will further throw their credibility and value into doubt.

I blogged Blockstream’s Core “Bitco[i]n” Will Collapse to $775 Price Soon:

The May 2020 timeline is presuming that Craig Wright is not bluffing. Craig’s group does have ~3000 peta-hash/s which is a few percent of Bitcoin’s network hashrate, so that might be sufficient to lead the “attack” as I have explained in great detail (c.f. the links earlier in this blog).

Why would Craig bluff when the “attack” appears to be both plausible and insanely profitable (again refer to the link to the detailed explanation). And he would fulfill his admonishments and warnings about destroying all the scammers in the cryptocosm:

It’s not like he hasn’t crashed Core’s price before:

The following agrees in timing and prices with alternative mathematical analyses I have shared in private email for my expectations between now and the May 14, 2020 halving. Note GRS/BTC has already lead out of the bottom as I expected it would. LTC/BTC should soon lead BTC out of the bottom as well, with BTC blasting off around the end of the year. It seems to indicate (factoring in 2/3 timing from my other analysis) a new $24–26k ATH in Jan/Feb 2020, then a dip to ~$15–19k, then a ~$35–40k price at the halving, then dip to prior ATH, then $300–400k before end of 2020. Additionally, due to Precisely Why Bitcoin Is Re-accelerating, the 2020 ATH could be $2+ million:

That’s similar to the projection guesstimate I posted on BCTalk a month ago:

Which was an update to the projection guesstimate I posted 8 months and re-posted 6 months ago:

Another bullish way to visualize:

More bullish analysis which was also conceptually included in a more detailed analysis I posted in mid-November (almost two weeks ago):

Due to the “tweening” I explained in my linked analysis and factoring in the last chart above, there should be an initial new ATH at 2.414X greater than the prior ATH (i.e. thus 2.414 × $19.7k = $47.5k) before the May 2020 halving.

Amazingly that said detailed analysis I had posted, also concurs with the “Gaussian channel” analysis:

Gaussian channel. Exponential moving averages applied multiple times. Prints clear cyclical trends and buying opportunities.

(click to zoom to source)

A very bullish inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern is developing:

Multiple technical indicators that a breakout to the upside is imminent:

Note before liftoff a decline to higher low (e.g. ~$6.6k higher than ~$6.5k) during December would be consistent with the broadly interpreted fractal pattern from the $3.1k bottom at the start of 2019. One posited scenario is:

@Paashaaswrote on BCTalk:

I love how sentiment changed quickly from:

To:

@micgoossens wrote on BCTalk:

Bitcoin explosion is in the air.

The volumes at Bakkt are broken almost daily. If we assume that the volume on a coin market cap is 90% fake and Bakkt represents true volumes, then Bakkt is now more than 1 percent of the total volume on market cap. Here Bakkt comes to the point that they need so many bitcoins that there will be a shortage on the market. It is only a quarter to two in the afternoon and the trade in America has yet to start and Bakkt is already at 10 million volume. Today or tomorrow, Bakkt will cover the 25 million bitcoins. That is equal to 1 / 8000th part. Enough to make the market explode. I expect the bitcoin to be at $ 25,000 within a month. Then another 50,000.
Now maybe. the moment to buy in

A friend just send me this true[through] what’s app from one or other Belgian link, I don’t know (can’t provide) the true source, but what you thinking about this??

The institutional money may be front-running the imminent price jump at the May 2020 halving per PlanB’s stock-to-flow model valuation. Note except for the seasonal FOMO crowd, the general public is still nonplussed about Bitcoin and waiting for a mainstream crypto/blockchain “killer app”:

(click to zoom)

(click to play video clip on Twitter)

Wait for the humorous, salient punchline at the 1 min. mark in the above Twitter video clip.

P.S. The winner of the BCTalk Ten Year Anniversary art contest is impressive art: