Dr. Albert Bartlett stated, “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Imagine a caretaker that comes to check on his lily pond once a month. It requires 36 visits (i.e. months) for the pond to be completely covered with lily pads. But on the 35th visit the pond is only half covered. If not thinking in terms of exponential math, the typical human caretaker’s linear extrapolating, visual mind will be fooled into thinking there’s 35 more visits after the 35th visit before the pond will be fully covered.
Visual inspection of the following long-term Bitcoin price charts fools most humans to conclude that Bitcoin is “decelerating” more than it is.
(click here to zoom above images)
The myopia is driven by:
A logarithmically scaled vertical, price axis which renders as visual “deceleration” any actual price acceleration which less than the chosen log scaling factor.
Comparing all the ATH price peaks to each other, presuming that they’re all topologically equivalent, when in fact they’re not.
There’s a repeating topological feature or fractal pattern 1-2-3-4-5 which repeats as 3-5-6-7-8 and 6-8-9-10-11. Note 11 has not occurred yet.
McAfee tweeted May 2019:
“Bitcoin over $400,000 in two years??? Anyone who can add and subtract, and who has even the slightest comprehension of point-set topology, knows, absolutely, that it can't be less than one mil within two years. Does no-one study math anymore?? WTF people?”
And tweeted:
“When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong.”
McAfee’s original July 2017 “eat my dick” tweet presumably correlated the future 10 peak to extant 4 and 7 peaks.
Thus McAfee presumably performed a model calculation (presumably much more sophisticated than this but perhaps approximated by) roughly comparing the regression fit of 1-2-4, 3-5-7 and 6-8-10. Noting that 10 had not yet occurred when McAfee published the said July 2017 tweet. McAfee assumed a model acceleration that would be roughly equivalent to the acceleration of 3-5-7 and this projected a model price of roughly $5000 at the end of 2017. My topological study isn’t sophisticated enough (yet) to know how or if he was able to pinpoint a peak for the end of 2017. I am just focused on mathematically explaining roughly how he presumably arrived at the acceleration of the model.
The following Bitcoin price data is lifted from my prior comment post on this topic 6 months ago in May 2019. I suggest also reading that linked post after reading this blog.
The x axis is days since Bitcoin’s launch (or since first data point) and y axis is price. First, the 1-2-4:
Next, the 3-5-7:
Finally, the 6-8-10 prediction model before 10 occurred:
The relative acceleration is the computed C data point. Remember from differential calculus that the second derivative 2C of A + Bx + Cx² is the acceleration and the first derivative B + 2Cx is the velocity.
Note the acceleration C for 3-5-7 and 6-8-10 were presumed to be more or less equivalent (with insignificant differences in my computation being possibly attributed to using slightly different price data points and/or probably a lower level of holistic, mathematical sophistication in my topological model).
Yet as McAfee noted May 2019 when he increased his prediction to $1 million, that Bitcoin had accelerated (and I compute by an order-of-magnitude!) during the actual 6-8-10 outcome:
My simplistic, non-holistic “topological” methodology for modeling the predicted price of 11 is to compare 1-4-5, 3-7-8 and 6-10-11. First, the 1-4-5:
Next, the 3-7-8:
Finally, the 6-10-11 at same acceleration of 3-7-8 and 11 arbitrarily at the end of 2020:
Without an increase in acceleration, that predicts only a maximum of $42,000 before the end of 2020.
Yet the increase in acceleration has been on the order-of-a-magnitude, so the 6-10-11 at order-of-magnitude increase in the acceleration of 3-7-8 and 11 arbitrarily at the end of 2020:
That presumption raises the maximum predicted price to $154,000 before the end of 2020.
Yet my simplistic method lacks a model for the change in the acceleration over time, which would require a cubic regression fit for A + Bx + Cx² + Dx³. Given that 6-10-11 will be of much greater duration compared to 3-7-8 than 6-8-10 compared to 3-5-7, there will be more than an order-of-magnitude acceleration.
Additionally my model doesn’t account for the sudden change in velocity and acceleration for the final moonshot price rises to 5, 8, and 11, because my model is not a complete point-set topological space model. All the data points need to be factored into a holistic model. For example, the above three data point model has the maximum price above $100,000 at the May 14, 2020 halving (i.e. 4144 days); whereas, other clues I’ve found are indicating $26 – $78k before the halving event.
McAfee is now claiming $2 million before the end of 2020, which would require the following acceleration in an overly simplistic, quadratic regression model:
The slope of the moonshot to 5 from $0.56 on April 4 (816 days) to $19 on June 8 (881 days) was $0.28 daily. The slope of the moonshot to 8 from $99 on September 28 (1723 days) to $1241 on November 30 (1787 days) was $18 daily. The time duration from 8 to 11 at end of 2020 divided by the duration from 5 to 8 will be factor of 2.85. If at the May 2020 halving event, then 2.6. The slope could thus conceivably easily rise into the $30,000 per day range ((18 ÷ 0.28) ^ 2.85 = $143k or (18 ÷ 0.28) ^ 2.6 = $51k daily), which for a 65 day duration would be $1.95 million.
I’m reasonably convinced that McAfee is probably correct, because if I measure an equivalent length moonshot into 11 from current price levels on a live version of the complete Bitcoin price history chart, then I get some price ranging from $1.2 million to $3 million.
The mistake nearly everyone is making is looking at the gradual price rise to 10 instead of the moonshot 65 day price rises into 5 and 8. They make this mistake because they’re not grouping the point-sets into a topological space.
Bitcoin is about to shock the hell out of everyone.
And in more ways than one, because Core Bitcoin will likely also be destroyed at the halving event. Most everyone is going to be bewildered and lose everything. Especially likely many arrogant Bitcoin maximalists who ignored my detailed explanations and warnings.
