TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- Follow up to previous analysis on BTC/USDT - LINK
- Bitcoin continues to trend down and there are no signs of a change in the trend in the short term
- Another Bear Flag has formed suggesting another move down to the $5600-$5700 level
- I maintain the hypothesis that Bitcoin will head down to the $5000 level +/- $200
- Depending on the market reaction at the $5000 level, will we be able to look at a BTC recovery and trend reversal
- The BTC Shorts are stacked at 33,000 BTC vs 25,000 BTC long - suggesting market sentiment is very low and the market majority believes that BTC will continue to head down
- A short squeeze is possible, but even if that occurred, I expected that it would be short lived, and that the higher probability move is down
- The speed at which this drop has happened is of note and could suggest an ending diagonal pattern
- This signal may confirm the final leg to the correction, but until more information is available can a bull theory be presented
- A slower recovery may take place considering BTC has had 4 failed rally attempts this year
- Expect all ALT COINS to drop further to new lows as BTC comes down
- I maintain a long term bullish position and a BTC valuation of $25,000+ or more
- This is a a short term analysis based on price action, technical indicators, and pattern formations
INVESTOR NOTES:
To be clear, these notes are from the perspective of a day/swing trader. The notes above are not applicable to long term investors. Corrective price action and intermediate spikes in this market are of little or no consequence to anyone holding for long term for larger percentage gains.
- If you are an investor for the long term, all of these prices are great buy zones
- Buying at $6000, $8000, or even $9000 is of little or no consequence when you believe the price of Bitcoin will one day be $50,000 and beyond
- Good investors will accumulate over time, constantly cost averaging their positions, with confidence that current market prices do not represent the true value of the asset in the long term (anywhere from 6months - 4 years)
- Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are still in its infancy as an asset, with only a few hundred billion in its total market cap - as compared to the trillions in the majority of all other asset classes
- Patience is key
- I am a long term BULL
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LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
I am not a financial advisor, nor is this post intended to be financial advise. I encourage you to do your own research before investing, or trading, any coin, token, stock, or security. This blog is intended for me to document my own personal analysis, charts, thoughts, opinions, trading decisions, and experiences. If you would like to learn more about trading, cryptocurrencies, and the resources I utilize to trade and invest, see my previous post - LINK.
