That's a really great analysis :)

The missing piece of the jigsaw is that if the US had treated Russia with more respect, Putin would happily have joined a security structure that includes most of the Northern hemisphere. Despite being invaded by Napoleon and Hitler (and the Teutonic knights, Poland and Sweden before that), Russia has always seen itself as a European power, not an Asian one.

Russia has never forgotten their subjugation under the Golden Horde. Putin is well aware that the CCP has designs on Central Asia and it's rich mineral resources. China has been laying claim to successive areas which it claims to have owned historically, and if that includes the Mongol Empire, then everything east of the Elbe is included.

It is notable that despite the 100,000 troops the Western media have been talking about in the Ukraine area, the Eastern Military District has almost as many troops, and it is they who are reported to be receiving the bulk of new Iskander missile systems and T-80BVM tanks (the newest upgrade for this model). Putin is definitely keeping one eye on his supposed ally !