Pogonovo Training Facility (Russia) - Russian/Ukranian Border. source
Unless you've been buried under a rock, you probably know that the Russian Federation has increased their force structure along the Russian/Ukrainian border. Force Structure of a national military is the combat-ready assets and personnel that can be committed to a conflict.
The reason behind this is not some evil plot by Vladimir Putin to take over Eastern Europe, just because he felt like it, like most in Western media portray. But like most geopolitical conflicts, it has to do with security and failed diplomacy.
Now what I'm about to say is one narrative out of several. There are several reasons nations and leaders do what they do. The reasons nations go to war are incredibly complex, and they happen over decades. Wars happen over miscommunication, miscalculation, security, balance of power, prestige, vengeance, survival or pure avarice…just to name a few.
But what I find helpful, when I think about war, is that if you learn the motivations and history of the participants…sometimes you find common ground to avoid it. Because at the end of the day, the dead have only seen the end of War. And if we go to war, we better be fucking sure it's for the right reasons!
NATO Expansion from 1949 to 2020. source
NATO expansion and Russian decline.
When the Soviet Union was slowly disintegrating in 1990, James Baker, the US Secretary of State, said to the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would “not shift one inch eastward” beyond East Germany if the Russians allowed German reunification.
James Baker was keenly aware why the Russians were weary of a Pan-European military expansion. NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is an intergovernmental military alliance of European and North American Nations. And in the 19th and 20th centuries, two European militaries, France with Napoleon and Germany with Hitler, ravished western Russia and killed millions of Russians.
So James Baker wanted to put Mikhail Gorbachev’s mind at ease, with the notion that Eastern Europe would be non-aligned European States. Keeping a non aligned buffer of nations between Western European powers and Russia. Safeguarding Russian security.
Broken Promises.
This promise however was short-lived. In the early 1990s, the United States began pushing a policy that NATO should start expanding beyond East Germany. The reasoning is complex, but the political reality was that NATO could expand, and the Russians couldn't stop it. It is inherent in any organization to persist and expand, whether in business, or in geopolitical affairs…NATO expansion was no exception.
The Russians however we're not quiet about it. As NATO expanded east over the last 30 years, through diplomatic and military channels, the Russians conveyed their dismay of NATO expansion to Europeans, and especially to Americans. But in realpolitik, power dictates action. The Americans and the Europeans didn't have to listen to Russian misgivings because the Russians were weaker than NATO. So NATO pushed forward anyway.
Membership Action Plan.
As the years rolled by, NATO continually expanded. And in 2008, Ukraine applied for their NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP), which is a process to admit new members into NATO.
There were some internal political changes that stalled Ukrainian admission into NATO over the next several years, which you can find here. But in 2014, Moscow invaded and annexed Crimea, probably because NATO talks to slow down expansion were stalling.
Shortly after, the recently elected Ukrainian government in late 2014 then wanted to push forward NATO admission. In February 2019, the Ukrainian basic law was amended to make NATO admission more possible. In 2021, Russian Federation military forces began redeploying from Central and Northern Russia to the Ukrainian border.
Why is Ukraine so important to Russia?
Ukraine…especially Crimea, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Sevastopol Naval Installation resides, are critically important strategically to the Russian Federation. It has convenient access to the Black Sea, Dnieper River (through other rivers that lead to the Baltic Sea), and the Sea of Marmara (which leads to the Mediterranean Sea) for economic and military traffic.
Ukraine also provides more of a buffer against a future European invasion of the Russian territory and denial to the Black Sea's economic trade. The Black Sea connects Europe, Russia and Central Asia, through the caucuses, to Caspian Sea hydrocarbons.
Russia is concerned that if Ukraine is admitted to NATO, and Crimea, then Russia would lose its strategic footprint in the Black Sea, and the economic and military advantages it offers. Opening the Russian territory up to future European aggression.
German Invasion of Russia, 1941
source
German invasion of Russia.
The German invasion of Russia in 1941, the subsequent millions of Russians that died, the victory of Russian forces in 1945 at great cost, and the eventual Soviet Union buffer states that were created in Eastern Europe to help protect Russian territory from future European aggressors…are big reasons why Putin demands Ukraine not be part of the NATO military alliance.
Moscow makes no distinction between Germany of the 20th century or France of the 19th century, and NATO of the 21st century. Internal politics of a Nation or military alliances can change quickly from peace to war in a matter of years...history is replete with these instances...so NATO maybe peaceful now, but it may not be in 50 years.
The Strategic balance of power is shifting.
For 24 years, Moscow had repeatedly told the US and Europe that continued NATO military expansion closer and closer to Russia's periphery is a threat to their national security and asked them to stop. The Russians requested that states along its periphery, especially on its border, be independent and non aligned states. The US and Europeans have ignored these requests.
So, in 2014 the Russian Federation conducted politics by other means, by invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea, and the Europeans and the Americans did nothing. There are several reasons for this.
The United States was bogged down in asymmetrical warfare for 13 years, sapping money and the will to fight in additional wars. The Europeans had not been investing in their gray-zone military capabilities sufficiently enough to discourage a Russian invasion. The Russians executed a rather brilliant asymmetrical campaign along with conventional military victories. And last but definitely not least, China's rise and their improving strategic relationship with Russia.
I'm not going to cover the first three, because it would make this post much longer. But I will cover the last, China's rise.
Military balance of power in China's periphery and the Western Pacific. source
China's Rise.
Fast forward to today. Succinctly, China's military build-up is so significant that it is dominating U.S. defense policy.
That leaves a lot less resources for the United States to commit to NATO forces in a European theater. Russia knows this. They also know the United States is tired of war. They know the United States is mostly committed to the Pacific. And they know European allies do not have the military nor the stomach to fight another European War.
That said, a protracted war of attrition in Europe without China or US support, looks favorable for NATO, but I am digressing.
It's not that Moscow wants a war, no government (or people) really wants war. It's too costly, and the outcomes are too uncertain. But the strategic balance of power has shifted, China and Russia will have more of a say on what the world looks like now and in the future.
The strong do what they will, the weak do what they must.
I mentioned realpolitik…where geopolitics is shaped by reality rather than philosophy. I'm not saying the Russians are correct or incorrect in potentially invading Ukraine, again. I cannot afford to look at the world that way.
I know enough about people to know that the strong do what they will, and the weak do what they must to survive. The Russians for the past 20 to 30 years were weaker than the United States, Europe and NATO. That has changed with the help of American complacency, European short-sightedness, China's long-term view, and Russia's vision to join a growing power (China).
Hell, the Russians are probably posturing for war to increase their chips at the negotiating table…so they can avoid war. And there are quite a few European nations that import Russian Natural Gas. NATO countries like Germany and Italy import almost half of their imports from Russia, everybody likes to stay warm in the winter. Why bite the hand that feeds you and destroy that economic relationship?
Getting caught in the middle.
It is not cliche that big powers use small powers to do their bidding. The Ukrainians are caught in the middle of this mess, not to mention everyone else in Europe if this turns into a wider War.
Normal people who just want to make a living, selling glass ornaments in their shops, artists painting family portraits, auto mechanics, fishermen, power plant operators…they don’t want war. They don’t care about geopolitics, NATO expansion, or Russian strategic leverage, they just want a peaceful place to live and raise their families.
This is the most tragic thing of all. And goddamn all sides for their moral impotence and strategic arrogance over the last few decades for letting it get to this destabilizing point.
Stay frosty people.