Today, bitcoin's price reached a brand-new all-time high when it traded above $52,300 about 2% higher than yesterday, according to CoinGecko. We think bitcoin's price discovery is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
Additionally, in the past 24 hours, BTC/USD has jumped close to 7%.
So far, we have every reason to remain bullish on the short-term price action for bitcoin, mostly since BTC/USD held above $50,000. Not only that, but a significant portion of all bitcoin in circulation keeps being removed from exchanges. This is hugely positive for BTC/USD.
Adding to the above, our prediction that BTC/USD would continue to move upwards, and even break yesterday's high, came to be. We expect the price to fill in the rest of the predicted range (blue) by the end of the week, and reach $55,000 sooner rather than later.
As discussed in the Daily Roundup's previous edition, the most important news is the
corporations and institutions betting heavily on bitcoin.
According to the Guardian's Phillip Inman, MicroStrategy
"Analysts said the increase was a combination of endorsements from prominent business people, including Musk, and several investment banks that have said they would buy the currency."
Therefore, the chances BTC/USD continues to move into higher price ranges are significant.
For now, we expect bitcoin to continue its uptrend and move above $55,000 by the end of the week. We remain bullish as bitcoin has found support above $50,000, which is an excellent sign.
As a reminder, we are confident that BTC/USD will continue to move upward if:
- BTC/USD remains above its 20-day EMA (red), 50-day EMA (green), and 200-day EMA
(blue). - BTC/USD doesn't drop below $50,000.
- BTC/USD daily volume remains above its 21-day Moving Average soon.
What Do Traders Think?
Today's first tweet comes from Danny Scott, the CEO at Coin Corner.
In his post, Scott shares a baffling insight that yesterday's largest bitcoin transaction to date has taken place.
Scott also shares a link to the blockchain transaction, and after doing some digging, we've found out that the user's fee was 0.00038100 BTC, which corresponds to around $19. This means that someone paid $19 to move 111,510 bitcoin, valued at around $5.4 billion.
At the time of this writing, we do not think bitcoin possesses the necessary qualities to be a sustainable medium-of-exchange for micro-payments. However, as we can see from the transaction above, it's a fantastic tool to send value anywhere in the globe.
Although we cannot know the transaction's goal, we argue it could be related to a whale moving funds between wallets.
The next post comes from Byzantine General, whose Twitter profile describes him as a
technician.
In his tweet, Byzantine General wrote that he expects that the
"$BTC & $ETH bull market will last a lot longer than most people think."
The reason presented by Byzantine General converges with what we've been writing in the Daily Roundup, during these past few weeks. Essentially, the technician stated that with "the type of players entering the game now, we probably wouldn't have massive boom, bubble, bust cycles anymore."
Corporations, institutions and wealthy individuals typically have different behaviour than retail investors. These players don't usually look too much into short-term profits, but rather make long-term bets on assets they believe have a chance to increase in both value and adoption massively.
The next tweet comes from Charles Edwards, a member of Capriole Investments team.
Edwards shared an extremely bullish chart showing bitcoin's daily price since March 2020 (orange), and he added the exchange flows from Coinbase (blue). When the above chart was created, there were less than 754,000 bitcoin available at Coinbase for trading.
The data available above point to a severe supply shock that could be the main reason for the ongoing bitcoin price appreciation. Practically, since the summer of 2020, the total bitcoin available at Coinbase dropped over 20%. During the same period, the price of bitcoin grew north of 450%.
If the trend continues and the total bitcoin available at exchanges, namely Coinbase, continues to decline, the chances bitcoin's price keeps on rising, significantly increases.
As we've written in the Daily Roundup countless times, what drives the price of bitcoin upwards are more buy orders, than sell orders. Additionally, the less bitcoin is available to trade, and the more likely is the bitcoin's price to rise (law of supply and demand).
The last post of the day comes from Mati Greenspan, founder of the cryptocurrency research firm Quantum Economics and a trader, investor, and licensed portfolio manager.
In his post, Greenspan shares an important chart containing the "M1 Money Stock".
According to Investopedia,
"M1 is the money supply that is composed of physical currency and coin, demand deposits, travelers' checks, other checkable deposits, and negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts."
What is quite astonishing is that over 20% of all the U.S. dollars in circulation have been created after 2020.
If we align the above information with the fact that the Fed is doing massive amounts of assets purchasing, this panorama looks quite bullish for the short-term price of bitcoin through Quantitative Easing measures.
Essentially, the more units of currency that are available, the less valuable each unit should be.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Today, bitcoin's continued its massive uptrend and reached a new record price at $52,300.
In the past 24 hours, bitcoin's price increased 7%, and since last week, north of 12%.
At the time of this writing, it was trading close to $52,200, according to CoinGecko.
Early in the week, we predicted bitcoin's price would break $50,000 and find support above this critical range. Additionally, we also guessed that BTC/USD would discover a new high before the week's end. That's precisely what happened. Now, we're predicting a continuation of the bull-run, and that BTC/USD will top around $60,000, and then correct towards $55,000.
As long as institutions, corporations and wealthy individuals keep accumulating bitcoin, there is no telling how high the price may go. We're currently witnessing a real supply shock.
The price of bitcoin is now in price discovery mode, which means massive upswings are not only possible but likely to happen.
Hence, how do we think the price will trade today? As shown in the above chart, we believe that bitcoin could top around $56,000 if new buyers enter the space. Toward the end of the week, BTC/USD may break the $60,000 range.
On the other hand, we don't expect the cryptocurrency to drop much below $48,000, even if there is a minor sell-off. In the worst-case scenario, we see bitcoin finding support around this price range, and then quickly moving back above $50,000. However, as the price grows, the less likely is the above scenario to take place. We think BTC/USD will hold the critical support level at $48,000.
To finalize, the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) shows a high number of buy orders between $48,000 and $46,000, and then again around $40,000, which means BTC/USD should not go much below $45,000, even if bitcoin's price trend reverses for a short period.
As a reminder, we believe BTC/USD will most likely break $55,000 soon.