Congratulations to all investors and traders who held bitcoin during these past few weeks.
Bitcoin's price just broke a brand new all-time high, reaching $49,530 on Sunday. And it appears to keep wanting to go higher.
Since last Monday, bitcoin's price grew more than 22%. At the time of this writing, it was trading around $49,890, according to CoinGecko. Also, in the past 24 hours, BTC/USD moved up close to 3%.
Like we predicted last week, bitcoin's price found a new record price. Now, we think it will soon move towards $50,000.
In our view, the reason behind this bullish season continues to be more institutional players and large corporations continuing to join the space. Additionally, it seems more and more individuals are noticing that the recent appreciation in bitcoin's price could be related to the behavior of central banks.
Rana Foroohar of the Financial Times wrote that
"Central bankers have over the past 10 years (or the last few decades, depending on where you put the marker) quashed price discovery in markets with low interest rates and quantitative easing."
Interestingly, her argument goes in line with what Quantum Economics' analyst Pedro Febrero wrote in this essay. As he concluded,
"If most believe (bitcoin) is a safe haven asset, then QE will eventually push up BTC's price. As currency becomes extremely abundant, assets with strong network effects and limited quantities tend to rise in price."
Therefore, we think that as long as fiat currencies continue to be printed and used to buy assets, the price of such assets will most likely rise.
For now, we expect bitcoin to continue its uptrend and move above $50,000 by the end of the week. We remain bullish as bitcoin has found support above $45,000, which is an excellent sign.
As a reminder, we are confident that BTC/USD will continue to move upward if:
- BTC/USD remains above its 20-day EMA (red), 50-day EMA (green,) and 200-day EMA
(blue). - BTC/USD doesn't drop below $40,500.
- BTC/USD daily volume goes above its 21-day Moving Average soon.
What Do Traders Think?
This week’s first tweet comes from CryptoBirb, a well-known trader and Certified Technical Analyst.
In his post, the analyst shares a chart of bitcoin since late 2020. Additionally, CryptoBirb identifies a few support and resistance price ranges that match our analysis.
In terms of support, CryptoBirb points to three major price points, at $32,000, around $26,700, and finally at $18,200. He identifies resistance points at $49,000 and $54,000 since he expects sellers to unload some of their bitcoin around these prices.
To complete his hypothesis, the analyst makes it clear the price is following a bull-flag pattern.
CryptoBirb also writes that he expects the price of bitcoin to move toward “62k soon.”
According to Investopedia,
“The breakout from a flag often results in a powerful move higher, measuring the length of the prior flag pole.”
We agree with CryptoBirb’s analysis, and we think there is a strong chance the price of bitcoin breaks the $60,000 price range soon.
The next post comes from Joseph Young, whose Twitter profile describes him as an analyst and investor, as well as a contributor to Forbes and Cointelegraph. He currently has more than 122,000 Twitter followers.
In his tweet, Young predicts the short-term price of bitcoin, which perfectly correlates to the analysis provided by CryptoBirb.
Young wrote that he is
“Fully expecting $56k~$60k in the near term.”
Young highlights how it was vital for bitcoin's price to find support above $48,000, which seems to have happened.
Currently, we notice that there are not many sellers left in the market, which could be the main driver for the upcoming sharp gains that both analysts are predicting will materialize soon.
The next tweet comes from Pomp (Anthony Pompliano), co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital and author of The Pomp Letter.
In his post, Pomp shares his thoughts on the current price appreciation of bitcoin. He writes,
"60% of all Bitcoin wallet addresses have not moved any of their Bitcoin during those 12 months."
This statistic is extremely bullish, and it shows why there aren't many sellers left. Individuals and institutions that are buying bitcoin seem to be "hodling," meaning there is a significant number of coins that have not moved in the past year.
Pomp also shared another remarkable statistic that bitcoin's price
"has appreciated almost 500% in the last 12 months."
However, as Pomp also highlights, even during such an incredible bull cycle, bitcoin can still suffer extreme volatility, such as a 50% single-day drop in price.
We believe that as long as most bitcoin is left out of exchanges, there is a little chance the price will suffer another 50% drop. For now, we think the next target will most likely be near $60,000.
The last post of the day comes from Rekt Capital, whose Twitter profile describes him as a cryptocurrency trader and analyst, as well as the author of the Rekt Capital Newsletter.
In his short post, Rekt Capital writes that
"#BTC is only a few hundred dollars away from $50,000."
If bitcoin's price breaks this critical price range during the next few days, we could see bitcoin moving toward $60,000 in a matter of days.
As long as a significant number of short-term sellers don’t arrive in the bitcoin market, our analysis remains bullish.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Today, bitcoin's price broke a new high, when it traded at $49,500.
In the past 24 hours, bitcoin rose nearly 3%. At the time of this writing it was trading close to $48,900, according to CoinGecko.
Last week we predicted the price to go above $45,000 and find support above this critical range.
That's precisely what happened. Additionally, we guessed that BTC/USD would discover a new high before the week's end.
We continue to be extremely bullish on the price of bitcoin, as long as institutional buyers pour billions of dollars into the bitcoin market. Additionally, we think that retail FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is right at the door.
Hence, how do we think the price will trade this Monday and throughout the week? As shown in the above chart, we believe that bitcoin could top around $55,000 if new buyers enter the space.
Not only that, but there is a slight probability it could go even higher.
On the other hand, we don't expect the cryptocurrency to drop much below $44,500 even if there is a minor selloff. In the worst-case scenario, we see bitcoin finding support around $40,000, and then quickly moving back above $45,000. However, this scenario is improbable.
To finalize, the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) shows a high number of buy orders between $41,500 and $38,000, and then again around $35,000, which means BTC/USD should not go much below $40,000, even if there is a sudden trend reversal.
As a reminder, we believe BTC/USD will attain a brand-new record price before the end of today and that the price of bitcoin will most likely break the $50,0000 soon.