Today, bitcoin's price continues to rise and is now much closer to its prior all-time high, around $58,400.
In the past 24 hours, BTC/USD increased by almost 6% and was trading above $56,800 according to CoinGecko, at the time of this writing.
A new record price is now imminent, and we think bitcoin can reach $59,000 in a matter of days.
Hence, until the end of the week, we hope we'll be celebrating.
Additionally, If we look at the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) on the left, we see there are not many sellers left and that bitcoin's price will soon be entering price discovery mode. Once this happens, we're sure volatility will increase, and bitcoin's price will enjoy a massive upswing.
Of course, the greater the price rise is, the greater the potential fall. Hence, we recommend caution when using leverage, especially when trying to time the market.
In terms of news, Charles Boivard wrote in Forbes,
"Bitcoin prices have rallied over the last few days, coming close to $55,000 and then retracing slightly, managing to keep most of their latest gains." Additionally, in the article, Joel Kruger, cryptocurrency strategist at LMAX Digital, said, “As far as levels go, we would highlight the current record high and $60,000 as the next key levels of resistance for bitcoin.”
Therefore, a move to higher price ranges, including a new record price, is now closer than ever.
In summary, bitcoin's price traded within the predicted range (blue), and it continued to climb, breaking the $55,000, as we accurately guessed. Therefore, we expect the short-term price to break $60,000.
We remain bullish on BTC/USD as long as:
- BTC/USD remains above its 20-day MMA (red), 50-day MMA (green), and 200-day MMA
(blue). - BTC/USD doesn't drop below $52,000.
- BTC/USD daily volume goes above its 21-day Moving Average soon.
Traders’ Food For Thoughts
Today's first tweet of the day comes from Rafael Schultze-Kraft, whose Twitter profile describes him as a data scientist, on-chain analyst, and CTO at Glassnode.
Schultze-Kraft shared the "Bitcoin: Percent of Supply Last Active 1+, 2+, and 3+ Years Ago." The conclusions we draw from the data are quite obvious. As the analyst wrote, those who hold bitcoin for longer (3+ years) are not selling, opposite to those users who have held bitcoin for the past two years.
Essentially, the sellers are those who joined recently and have not yet fully experienced a complete cycle. In other words, less experienced investors and traders are leading the sell-off, while addresses who have held bitcoin longer are buying.
As it usually happens in most bull runs, bitcoin flows from those who are impatient to those who wait. However, as Quantum Economics' analyst Pedro Febrero argues in this essay, bitcoin is getting further distributed because its supply is limited.
Therefore, those who sell rarely have the opportunity to acquire it back at a lower price.
The next post comes from Yassine Elmandjra, a crypto asset analyst at ARK Invest.
In his post, Elmandjra retweets an exciting chart from March 2020, when bitcoin’s price had one of its worst days ever. As the analyst wrote, bitcoin “dropped nearly 40% in a single day.”
However, a year later, the cryptocurrency “is comfortably trading above $50,000.”
Therefore, those who accumulated during one of the worst crashes in bitcoin’s price history and hodled their bitcoin are now enjoying significant gains.
Hence, we think the best strategy is always to be eager to buy and greedy to sell. After all, only 21 million bitcoins will ever be created, at best.
The next tweet comes from Vijay Boyapati, a software engineer, analyst, and author of the masterpiece, "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin."
In his post, Boyapati highlights how
"corrections (in bitcoin's price) to become shorter and shorter as the market becomes more parabolic and FOMO kicks in."
He used the example of the drop between $42,000 and $29,000 that took place in late January.
Bitcoin dropped about 30% during that time, its price went below the 20-day MMA, and it took the coin 30 days to achieve a brand new record price. However, "The current correction has lasted 20 days," and we add that bitcoin's price drop did not reach 30%, nor did it go below the 20-day MMA.
Therefore, we think Boyapati's thesis might hold. Historically speaking, that's precisely how bitcoin's price behaved. However, as most oldtimers like to say:
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
The last post of the day comes from Su Zhu, co-founder, CEO, and CIO at Three Arrows Capital.
In his short and succinct tweet, Zhu writes “Macro x Onchain x Fundamental x Technical all pointing in one direction. Up and to the right.”
In other words, most indicators point to a continuation of the current price rally. We would also like to add that bitcoin will most likely reach a brand new record price in a matter of days.
Zhu writes that bitcoin’s price should also be moving “to the right,” which we interpret as minor periods of consolidation while the price appreciates.
Buckle up. As volatility rises and bitcoin’s price appreciates, you should be prepared for minor downward wicks that may affect your long positions. As we always recommend, don’t overexpose your portfolio to short swings and trade with care.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
At the time of this writing, bitcoin's price is close to breaking its prior record price, at $58,400.
Currently, it is trading at $56,800, and buyers keep flocking to the space, which indicates a continuation of the ongoing rally.
Not only that, but most analysts think the correction is entirely over, and this new rally will move bitcoin towards $60,000 and above.
How do we think the price will trade today and through the rest of the week? As shown in the above chart, we believe that bitcoin could top around $60,000 in the next few days, assuming buyers continue to enter the space. Considering recent volume, that scenario is quite likely to happen.
On the other hand, we don't expect the cryptocurrency to drop much below $55,000. If it falls, then $52,000 will most likely be the next healthy level of support for bitcoin's price.
To finalize, the VPVR shows a high number of buy orders at $50,000 and that there are almost no sellers left, which means bitcoin's price will soon enter discovery mode. Get ready for high levels of volatility.