In a recent post I presented an algorithm that always finds all pre-determined rare events in a limited number of trials.The context was the distribution of Mythic Variants and the challenges involved in ensuring the process was carried out as expected and without errors.
But in the end I explain why I think a raffle system is actually better. A raffle system has a few advantages:
always distributes all prizes irrespective if all packs are sold or not
there are no risks of all the prizes being randomly found too soon (and selling the remaining packs losing some of the appeal)
there are no artificial distribution solutions (pre-determined prize allocations or checkpoints) that create probabilistic dead zones that buyers are incentivized to avoid and could dampen the buying momentum, which means that
there is an even, constant incentive to buy packs until the end
the chances of being selected are strictly the same for all entries
if some form of instant gratification is desired, there could be raffle tickets, with the added benefit of generating earnings and upside for more people than the very few prize winners
I also think minting valuable 1/1s directly from pack purchases is a bad idea. Some will be lost in inactive wallets / accounts and never seen in the game again. This has happened before. It's a waste.
In this post I try to go into some detail about how an online raffle process could look like for GU, minimizing mistakes and guaranteeing fairness and transparency.
Procedure aside, there is the issue with compliance: there could be local laws regarding raffles or sweepstakes that need to be accounted for. But I'm not a lawyer and I don't know anything about this, so I'll leave that part to the experts.
An accounting backend tool generates a list of entries. This tool could be made available to every game, as part of the package of features Immutable X makes available to games they support. It would allow the selection of one or multiple sales events or categories and generate a list of every purchase or a unique list of buyers, as necessary. A list of player IDs or mint addresses would then be sent to the next step.
The list of entries is made public - Discord, a blog post, etc. There would be 1-3 days for the community to review the list and point to inaccuracies. If the list needs to be updated, the timer starts again, and this process repeats until no further errors are found.
The raffle is set up on a dedicated website like https://raffall.com/en or https://fairyraffles.com/. Fairy Raffles stores data and determines the outcome via blockchain, using the Arbitrum One network, for a small ETH fee. The website should allow the verification of the raffle data after the raffle ceremony.
The raffle ceremony is streamed live - on Twitch or Youtube and the video is made available for a few days. The raffle data and results should also be made available on the website used to pick the winners.
The winners are announced
on social media channels and Discord
via the email address linked to their wallet address / player ID.
in the game client, that is set up to enable personalized news entries so that the winners see a news banner informing them of the result and that they should contact the GU team to receive their prize.
The actual minting of the prizes could be further automated by enabling the winner to sign a message for example. This would also help the team save some time on manual tasks. The winner could receive a ticket "Please contact the GU team to claim your xyz prize" that once burned would trigger the minting of the prize.
If the prize is not claimed in a certain number of days, the raffle result is forfeited and a new winner is selected, repeating the procedure from point 3, until all prizes have been distributed.
Update the initial report in point 2 with the raffle results or create a new post with the outcome and links to the raffle result and the ceremony video.
The same general principles apply, but in this case raffle tickets would be minted together with the card packs. The tickets could be more or less than the number of items sold, depending on the particular raffle strategy.
During the initial period the tickets would be tradable in the secondary market. People interested in increasing their odds of winning are able to purchase tickets from other people.
There is a snapshot date, when the number of tickets in each address is recorded and locked for the raffle ceremony
The raffle is executed on the ownership of the tickets (instead of the purchasing data), following the same principles as before.
The actual minting of the prizes could be automated by allowing the winner to 'turn over' their ticket by burning it at the Forge for example. In case of inactivity, there would need to be a system in place to invalidate prior winning tickets.
As a consolation prize, ticket owners can redeem (or burn) their tickets in exchange for an exclusive cosmetic item, for example. There could be a deadline for this process as well.
