When Alt Season?

BTC dominance is down to approximately 55% today. Don't look now, but "when alt season" is starting to come to mind.

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Sure BTC dominance can and does fluctuate massively from day to day, crypto, volatility, you know the game. However I've started to see crypto through a different set of eyes lately.

Crypto On The Road

I've been on the road out to the East Coast this past week, mostly without internet access as I undergo a 2 week self isolation at a lake side cabin in the boonies. Like no cell phone reception boonies! My friends didnt warn me about that, thanks guys..

I only have access to internet periodically, so I've been weened off my addiction of watching the crypto trading charts 24 hours a day. We'll not really an addiction, really it's just work if you're trading, part of how I generate my income like many of you.

I don't know if it's because I'm not looking at charts 2-4-7, only pulling up Coingecko once every coupe days plus catching some headiness from time to time, but BTC is still moving sideways while other top coins are seemingly forging ahead.

ETH, BNB, XRP, the main alts have been coming out to party this past week.

When having a quick peak at the market caps all I see is alts crushing it. Now today I see BTC dominance has officially dropped below the 60% threshold down to around 55%.

Alt Season When BTC Dominance < 60%

We've been here before, this is familiar territory. When BTC looses momentum the alts come out to party, and at some point we can declare Alt Season. A good time to push your exit strategy to the next phase if you have one.

But in reality it's like many things, it doesn't happen over night. BTC dominance will fluctuate up and down for a while until we can actually start to see a bigger trend, then we can judge.

Sometimes when your that tightly dialed into the markets it really does require zooming out in order to gain some perspective.

As far I remember we can officially declare Alt season when BTC dominance is below 60% for a given period of time. Things move fast in crypto but we've got to give this some time before making a call like that.

How To Make The Call

Before I can call an Alt season I want to see BTC dominance below 60% for 4 consecutive weeks in a row. It's really hard to peg these things as they happen real time and I think the only way I could objectively call this one would be to have a measurable result.

THIS IS NOT ALT SEASON YET

But in my opinion we're in that territory now, that's for sure.

I'm aware there are other ways to measure this, and in fact by some metrics we're already in an alt season based on factors like the top 50 coins out performing BTC on average.

I just want to be clear that we've only just began to really see BTC dominance slip. It's now a matter of where do we go from here..

I think it's time to put eyes on this. Maybe it's just a phase and BTC still has more ATH's to smash, putting alts to shame, or maybe this is the beginning of something else. We shall watch and see.

Ciao for now,

@agr8buzz