Dear Chapper,
Thank you for that clear, cool-headed analysis of data. Let me say upfront, I cannot read some opinion pieces about this virus because for me this not an abstract exercise. Anyone who denies the lethality or existence of the disease is welcome to that view, but I won't engage with them.

Early on in the New York phase of this epidemic I learned that Myron had been hospitalized. Who is Myron? A very sweet, personable, sophisticated friend who loved to play handball. He was so thin and tall we (my husband and I) suspected he might have Marfan syndrome. Myron was a creature of Manhattan. He was several years older than I am, which means he was close to 80 when he was stricken by COVID. He was an early victim. We suffered for him when we heard he was hospitalized. We realized the great pain and distress he must be in. When he died not only did we grieve, but we understood that COVID was real, it was deadly and it was among us.

A couple of weeks later my husband heard Oscar was in the hospital with COVID. Who is Oscar? A 40ish man, resident of Nassau County, who likes to play poker. Oscar couldn't talk to us, but he could text. He fought for his life with the realization that his sister had died a few days before, in the very same hospital. Oscar was not ventilated, and he recovered.

These are just two stories out of many I could tell--children who lost parents, funerals watched from afar. We decided to update our wills, powers of attorney and medical directives. We signed those documents as we sat in a car and our lawyer stood outside. We are not only old, but also have (especially I have) chronic health issues.

There is no question that mistakes were made when this virus hit. That ventilators were overused. These turned out to be death sentences in most cases. Nursing home infections were handled badly and this resulted in more deaths. Nobody really knew what to do. Which is amazing, considering the notice the world had received from Wuhan.

I find your analysis fascinating. And I agree correlation is not causation. However, to me, one thing is indisputable: COVID is caused by an infectious agent. You have to be exposed to it in order to get sick from it. Given a poor understanding of its spread, its lethality, and individual susceptibility to the virus, the most basic measure to protect health is to prevent infection. When the virus was raging in New York, lockdown made sense here because so many were infected and it was spreading so wildly. Unfortunately, people are not very good at policing themselves...at wearing masks, washing hands, keeping distant. In the beginning there was denial of aerosolization. Even now, there is denial.

One of the most foolhardy, and grievously deceptive messages early on was that masks don't slow the rate of infection (effective masks, not bandanas and cloth coverings). If this were true, doctors and nurses wouldn't wear them. PPE wouldn't be such an issue for healthcare workers. But bureaucrats lied because there weren't enough masks to go around. If there had been, if everybody in New York had been issued an N95, or at least an effective covering, then we wouldn't have needed a lockdown.

Lockdowns are crude tools, a little like amputation of a limb to save a life. But a lockdown in New York was the only way we had to slow infection. And slowing infection was the only way to reduce death rate. I agree that a global lockdown makes no sense, given the great disparity in experience with COVID.

I think, when a postmortem of this pandemic is complete--perhaps years down the road--we will see a number of causative factors (for increased death rate). Overall health of the population (BMI is an expression of that) will certainly be one. Healthcare delivery will be another. Perhaps innate susceptibility will be another. Average age of population will likely factor in. Government policy--wearing of masks, advocating for sound infection control--these will surely figure in also. Population compliance with infection control (and this is tied to government policy lending credibility to these measures) will also figure in, I believe.

Please understand that I am not so fearful of dying that I huddle in my home, paralyzed into immobility. (I don't live in NYC.) But I have little faith in those who are supposed to be managing this disease, and I've never been a fan of hospitals or intensive medical intervention. Catching COVID would likely subject me to both--despite my medical directives to the contrary.

In sum, when I refuse to entertain statements that COVID doesn't exist or that it really isn't very dangerous, I do so out of respect for Myron, and for others who have suffered. I could get angry at these statements. But why? That doesn't help anything. I choose to be peaceful and leave people to their opinions. This doesn't mean I'm unwilling to look at cold facts and try to figure this puzzle. But I do so from a position of comity and peace.

I'm linking to a data report from New York State which breaks down on a daily basis infection/death rates by county. I don't know if you'd find this interesting, but it is a little more granular than you might get in another reference. I tried to find correlation by looking at average age, income, race and found none. The one thing that does seem to hold up is population density.

I hope you and all those you love stay well... and I don't mean only in regard to COVID.

Warm regards,
AG