More than two weeks ago I wrote about the possibility for Bitcoin to reach the 55 weekly EMA.
So far we're as planned, we bounced several times at this exact level, which seems to provide a strong support level.Bullish scenario: we can have candle wicks as low as 7780$ - where the 55 EMA and the 100 MA are to be found
For now we continue to swing between the 55 weekly EMA (blue) and the 200 day MA - vaguely represented by the dotted yellow line. If we break this 8600$ resistance, we might indeed revisit our 12000$ local high again.
A closer look at the daily chart shows us exactly how the 200 day MA (grey) and 21 day EMA (yellow) are holding us to get higher. A bullish RSI divergence has indeed formed, which resulted in that 10% price spike. The MACD also shows a bullish cross, but the plateauing Histogram indicates that the bulls ran out of momentum lately, which is confirmed by the low trading volume.
An even closer look for the swing traders out there: the second price spike is exactly a 1-1 Fibonacci extension from our first one. If this current movement turns out to be indeed a 5-wave Elliot count, our next possible spike could get us in the 9000$ area, to the 200 MA. Keep in mind that this is just a possibility. Both the RSI and MACD show signs of rather going down than up.
