One day, you'll wake up with bags full of cash, and the next day, the hard, cold winter storm will knock at your door. But based on the fullness of the bags, the winter will feel like a blessing or an absolute nightmare. Bull markets climb the walls of worry, as investors often find it hard to believe that the bear market is over.
Bear markets, on the other hand, feel like entering space in the blink of an eye. I still remember vividly the moment BTC briefly touched $20,000 in 2017; it felt like there was no ceiling for this thing, and there were already voices talking about "that $1 million BTC."
Two or three days later, it was all over, and when BTC crashed all the way down to $12,000, we should have known that was the end of the bull market. Most of us got caught off guard by the 2018 bear market, and although for the smart investors who pulled out profits during the bull market, the 2018-2020 winter in crypto was a blessing, for the rest of us, it was the end of the world.
There aren't many calling the current bull market in crypto and equities for what it is - a bull market - because many find it hard to believe that there can be one when there's this "looming recession" waiting at the door for so long. The macro view offered by the media to the masses is the worst financial advice one could take.
The recession will come, no doubt about that. Despite all the positive outlooks regarding the industrial revolution 4.0 (or whatever) and the AI promising potential for the future of all sorts of industries, but before that, we need to have a blow-off top in crypto and equities.
No bull market has ever ended in doubt, fear, and uncertainty. It's always excessive greed, euphoria, and certainty that mark the end of a bull market. We've seen that in the past three cycles in crypto as well. How's the bull market gonna play out this time?
Well, despite not being a fan of the mass adoption that a Bitcoin spot ETF might bring for crypto, I have to say that the names involved in such ETF offerings and the prospects of such investment products will fuel greed, euphoria, and certainty in the never-ending upside potential for Bitcoin and altcoins to unprecedented levels.
A Bitcoin spot ETF will make it possible for all the non-connoisseurs of the crypto industry to enter safely and more conveniently into the market. Not just retail will have access to such ETF, but pension funds and other sorts of investment funds that do not handle the thought of self-custody at the moment will be able to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to memorize keys, risk getting hacked, or rug-pulled by exchanges.
That's when the ones who have a minimum understanding of what blockchain technology and crypto mean and have missed the past two bull markets are going to enter the arena. Couple this with the halving scheduled to occur in late April this year, and you have probably one of the most exciting and rewarding bull markets in crypto.
Traditional markets will do well as well in the next few months, trapped by the soft landing narrative currently served to investors by traditional media. There will be no soft landing; the dollar will fall for a while, markets will rally, but at some point, the blow-off top will occur, and once again, the dollar will be king.
I know it sounds odd from someone like myself, a crypto believer, to say that the dollar will be king in the next couple of years or so until the next bull market will once again climb the walls of worry. But once the real recession kicks in, what do you think the safe haven will be for all that money that exits the equities market and crypto? The damn dollar.
First, we have a raging bull market ahead, which, in my opinion, will end sooner than the previous one. Although, so far, it was BTC, SOL, and a handful of other cryptos that have rallied significantly, the time for the rest of them will come too. When these people who missed two bull markets in a row get greedy and start pouring money into the market, they will look to do that on "cheap coins" with flat charts.
Some here are fearful that HIVE won't perform well this bull market. It will. HIVE usually lags other major coins, as it did in 2020, but when its time comes, it will be a performer. So, first, we need to see the damn blow-off top; then, the recession will kick in, and once the recession cools down, it will be buying time once again.
Meanwhile, HODL and be ready to take profits; don't make the same mistakes I did two bull markets in a row. Have a great weekend, folks, and see you all next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
