On August 14, 2025, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, and once again, the masses were fooled into thinking the most explosive part of this bull market was just days away.
Didn't happen... BTC corrected from well over $124,000 to as low as $111,000 in a matter of a week, liquidating tons of high-leverage positions on the way. I guess that's what degenerate gamblers deserve...
But who am I to judge? Most of us here are all in—or damn near all in—on altcoins, so the only thing that matters for us right now to kick off a full-blown altcoin season is for ETH to blast past its 2021 ATH and for BTC to lose dominance like there's no tomorrow.
ETH is currently trading at around $4,738.96, according to coingecko, and on some exchanges, it topped out at a bit over $4,800 after yesterday's pump. In 2021, it reached a maximum high of $4,878.26, which means ETH has now set a new ATH.
It was pretty damn clear ETH was gonna go ballistic as institutions were piling into it like there was no tomorrow. BlackRock has been leading the pack in this regard. Why does ETH matter so much for altcoin seasons?
Well, it’s the second-largest altcoin in existence, and once it smashes through its previous ATHs, the message to the market is loud and clear: we’re full risk-on again. Bitcoin season is about to end, imo.
BTC.D is currently at 58.23%, and the path looks clear. I think 64% was the top. We saw BTC hit 71% in 2021, and many were expecting it to revisit that level as the masses had all but given up on an altcoin season. All they were saying was: “Institutions only care about BTC, so no altcoin season for us.”
I’d say they’re dead wrong. It’s the weekend, and I wouldn’t expect ETH to do anything spectacular over the next day or so, but once we hit $5,000 per Vitalik coin, expect fireworks in shitcoins. All shitcoins. I’ve got meme coins that pumped 20% in a single day yesterday.
We’re just in the early stages of the altcoin season, and with BTC.D taking so damn long to drop hard, I get the overall sentiment. In almost every previous bull market, altcoins caught up with Bitcoin way better post-halving than they have this cycle.
Pick your winners, ‘cause we might make some serious cash in what’s left of 2025 and heading into 2026. The market usually peaks about one and a half years after the halving. But since BTC peaked before the halving—a first in Bitcoin’s history—and with other weird events, the peak might be delayed a bit.
I wouldn’t bet on there being no bear market this cycle just ‘cause of the ETFs... I could be wrong, but as soon as I see my portfolio going nuts again, I’m taking chips off the table. Once things really heat up, I’m shorting some overhyped meme coins.The signs are here for what could be the most explosive part of the cycle.
We just need confirmation (ETH going ballistic and BTC.D dropping to, like, 45%). Have a great weekend, and I’ll catch up with you all next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
