I have not actively pursued becoming a prominent figure in the CT community, but I follow a few accounts that I find valuable. Being engaged in the Hive crypto community and Twitter has significantly contributed to my six-plus years of experience with crypto.
I don't sugarcoat influencers and don't seek their favor. This applies to both my online and offline life. Unfortunately, I made some significant mistakes in the previous cycle that adversely affected my potential crypto investment revenue. Back in 2018-2021, I closely followed two individuals, PlanB (known for his S2F model) and RektCapital (a TA expert with a large following).
Both individuals predicted that Bitcoin would reach around $200,000 in the previous bull market. If I recall correctly, PlanB's model suggested a peak of $288,000. However, as of 2021, BTC hasn't even reached $100,000, and we hope it will hit that mark in this cycle.
In my naive understanding of crypto, I based my exit plan on their analyses and models. I waited for BTC to exceed $100,000 before considering exiting my positions. However, it didn't happen, and I entered the 2022 bear market with full bags. As my portfolio value dwindled, I became desperate and invested in LUNA, hoping to make a profitable trade. The rest is history.
Over time, I returned to Twitter and started commenting on PlanB's tweets, "reminding him" that his model failed, and I had messed up an entire bull market. While the macro perspective suggests the guilt is mine, influencers have a responsibility when making public claims that followers rely on for their bull market strategies.
After some time, I got blocked by PlanB and mostly forgot about him until recently when I saw one of his YouTube videos. This time, he claims BTC is supposed to climb as high as $532,000.
Let me be clear—this isn't happening this cycle, despite the ETF and the halving acting as potential catalysts for a powerful bull run. Institutional investors may enter the Bitcoin market, but the trust for this asset class isn't there yet. Comparing Bitcoin to gold is currently unwarranted.
Bitcoin has a millennia-long history as a store of value before the ETF. Although technology accelerates evolution and adoption, I believe it will take about a decade for BTC to surpass gold's market cap. My take is that we won't see BTC nearing $500,000. Perhaps $150,000 is plausible, but don't delude yourself into believing Bitcoin will hit $500,000 this cycle.
I'm not discouraging following crypto influencers or consuming their content. What I'm saying is to decide for yourself and be realistic about your hard-earned money invested in such ventures.
If I hadn't paid much attention to these crypto gurus, I could have made close to $500,000 in profits in the previous bull market. Instead, I entered the bear market broke (as I currently am). I won't repeat the same mistake this cycle. Every bull market has its own cycle and dubious top targets, emphasizing the importance of staying true to yourself, having a plan, DCA-ing out during euphoric phases, and not basing your portfolio on predictions like PlanB's.
In conclusion, some crypto figures like PlanB do more harm than good for their followers. Have a great weekend, folks, and may the god of crypto bless you with tons of profits this bull market.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian