I don't know how much sense my title makes and if it's proper English that I've used here, but that's how I felt naming this post. It's about Bitcoin, the crypto market, and what I believe will come in the next few months in this market.
Bitcoin has been in an almost continuous fall since November last year. The past half-year or so has been nothing more, but downfalls. What has Bitcoin basically done was cascade from its ATH in such a manner. Now it is time for the stream course to change.
The lowest low we've had so far has been $17,500 and with this low Bitcoin has marked its first time in history dipping under a previous cycle ATH. It had to happen, right. Many analysts were expecting BTC to further fall, but that didn't happen back then.
Bitcoin hanged for a while above the 2017 peak and it's now well over $21,000. Let's not get overly bullish for the moment, shall we! We can't say yet that we're out of the woods, it would be so premature to think we're heading to $50k or something like that. No, sir.
I believe it will take BTC probably a year or so before it touches that level, but that doesn't mean it has to continue its fall after seven months of almost continual bleeding. What basically dragged BTC that low IMO was this LUNA, Celsius, and 3AC saga which seems to be over now.
The waters are calm now and we can form a bottom. Bottoming in crypto doesn't mean BTC can't fall under $20,000 in the near future, now that we're above, or that it can't revisit $17,500 and test it as support. It means that a range is being created and that $17,500 might have been the lowest low.
We've been talking of a recession for quite a while and that is impacting Bitcoin heavily, but what if the recession is already here... There's not much spending the way I see it and we can't talk of global economical growth either.
Bitcoin has had an unordinary peak back in 2021 and my take is that the current bear market will be as unordinary as well. The majority is expecting it to last for about two years, as it happened in 2018-2020, although we kind of had a mini bull run in 2019 if I remember correctly, things are different now.
There's a lot of hype lately on Twitter about some Arabic country making Bitcoin legal tender and that being a catalyst for a strong rebound and considering that gold and oil might have topped out in their bull markets, gold being in this position after Uganda(hope I'm not mistaken on this one) discovering thousands of tons of gold and oil price getting crushed by low demand.
That money has to go somewhere and Bitcoin is starting to look like a hedge in a digital era that we seem to be transitioning to. I don't know how much sense all of the above makes, but we might be cascading up once again. Don't expect anything spectacular, but the way I see it the worse is gone. What do you think?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
