Good evening to all my friends. I hope you all are doing well. I am having a fantastic. Friends, Today i am going to discuss the current market situation, focusing on gold and macro data. In the next 24 hours, important economic data from the US will be released, so let's dive into that. First, let's talk about gold. We saw gold breaking its all-time high in March 2024, marking a significant rally of nearly 34%. However, in the last 6-7 months, after the US began cutting rates, gold has faced a decline of about 7%. Specifically, in November, gold has dropped by around 6%. On the other hand, Bitcoin has surged by around 34% in the same period, outperforming gold. Looking at gold’s history, whenever we see a bearish divergence in the market, the price tends to crash. Right now, we are seeing a similar pattern where gold is showing a divergence between price action (higher highs) and momentum (lower highs). This suggests a potential downside for gold in the near future.
As for Bitcoin, it's currently in a parabolic phase, and the funding rate has reached levels similar to March 2024, which could lead to more market corrections. During this phase, the market may face shakeouts, but once the funding rate resets, we could see another leg up. This is something to keep in mind if you are trading with leverage. Additionally, when Bitcoin corrects, altcoins often outperform Bitcoin, especially when Bitcoin’s dominance decreases. We saw this happen in 2020 and 2021, and it's likely to happen again in the future. Now, regarding the upcoming macro data, the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released soon. The market is expecting it to be around 2.4%. If it comes in lower than expected, it could be positive for the markets, as it would indicate a possibility of a larger rate cut by the Fed. A core CPI below 3% could be particularly bullish for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been rising, so we need to keep an eye on the CPI and interest rate changes. If the US continues to cut rates, more money might flow into riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, but gold could see outflows. If the Fed goes for a larger rate cut, it could spark more market rallies. So, stay alert to the macroeconomic data in the coming days. That's it for today. Here's the latest update video of crypto market. Thanks & have a good day!!
@abfarhan