Introduction and disclaimer
Everyone else does a bit of pontificating on here, so I'm going to have my turn! Please feel free to correct me if I have made any mistakes. And, of course, do challenge the ideas if you think I'm wrong. I hope these thoughts can spark some friendly debate.
Three Catalysts?
Browse this sub and if you can get past the endless shitposts about 'lambos' and 'the mooooon' and 'should I buy now?' and 'how high can it go?' and 'what does market cap mean?' and 'what's the easiest way to buy XRP using Tuvaluan dollars?' and 'can somebody help me to tie my shoelaces?' and so on, you will start to see posts about three possible near-term catalysts.
- SWELL
Ripple Labs is holding a big conference (called SWELL) in October. It is taking place on the same days and in the same city as Swift's SIBOS conference. The keynote speakers at SWELL will be:
- Dr Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Federal Reserve; and
- Sir Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web.
- THE LOCKUP
Ripple Labs holds about 62 billion XRP. The company has pledged to put 55 billion XRP into a cryptographically secured escrow account. The account will hold 55 contracts of 1 billion XRP each, with one contract expiring on the first day of every month from months 0 to 54. As each contract expires, the 1 billion XRP will become available for Ripple to 'use' (which likely means sell to financial institutions). Whatever is not used at the end of each month will be put back into escrow and become available to Ripple 54 months later. - XRP ADOPTION
Ripple sells software that helps banks to lower costs related to overseas remittances. Ripple is working with over 90 banks globally, some 30 pilots have been run, and more than 10 banks are moving into commercial use. Ripple also sells XRP. This asset is intended to be used as a 'bridge currency' in conjunction with the Ripple software. Banks who use it can practically double their cost savings. As far as we know, banks are not using it in any great volume yet.
Why does XRP's price fluctuate?
Well, why does any cryptocurrency's price fluctuate? Two reasons: speculation and demand.
Speculation: Traders like to guess which way the price is going to head and they buy and sell the currency to try to make short-term trading gains. Investors are trying something similar, albeit from a longer-term perspective. They think the price will rise over the long term, so they buy the asset. This very process of buying and selling is what causes the price to move.
Demand: Believe it or not, but some people actually use cryptocurrencies! Some drug dealers use Monero to make untraceable payments. Some people pay for goods and services with Bitcoin. Some financial institutions use XRP for overseas remittances. Hell, I use XRP to send money to my family, who are overseas.
What about these catalysts, then?
So what impact will the abovementioned (potential) catalysts have on the price of XRP?
SWELL
A lot of folks on here are very excited about SWELL. And I can't really blame them. The conference looks awesome. If you haven't checked out the agenda, you really should. It looks like a top-notch event. But what does it mean for the price of XRP? Well, it might cause a short-term spike if the day traders get as excited about this as the true-believers are. But once that price spikes, you can expect these guys to take profit and the price to correct accordingly. All the way? 50% retreat? I couldn't tell you. Which is why I'm no day trader. SWELL might also get some investors excited. People new to the crypto space will hear about XRP for the first time and their imaginations might be fired the same way ours have been. This could give the price a sustainable boost. "To the moon?" you ask. Don't ask. It's a stupid question and you're stupid for asking, ya stupid-face. "But CuriousZerper, I heard Ripple may use the conference to announce that SBI is going live with XRP!" I've read this, too, but it doesn't make much sense. Tech companies don't use conferences to announce that they have new customers or that they their customers are using their products. They use conferences to showcase their products, to generate publicity, and to win new customers. I'm not saying some kind of SBI-related announcement is out of the question, I'm just saying it seems unlikely to me.
THE LOCKUP
Ripple holds the lion's share of XRP. The company uses it to incentivize market makers. There is a fear among people who "regurgitate FUD" that Ripple Labs might just dump this onto the market to make a quick buck. This is known as overhang risk. But dumping XRP would be suicidal for Ripple. The company's surest way to vast profits is to do everything in its power to make XRP the global currency of choice. At that time, every single zerp it owns will be worth that much more. So what does the lockup mean for the price of XRP? Well, materially, the lockup doesn't really do anything to impact supply. Ripple Labs in May said that it "has sold on average 300 million XRP per month for the past 18 months." So when the escrow takes place and Ripple has 1 billion XRP available for sale every month, this is still FAR MORE than it is currently selling. The escrow serves one purpose: to instill confidence. It will not limit supply, but it may convince some who are on the fence to get off that fence and jump into the pool. (The water's great; come on in!)
XRP ADOPTION
I'll cut to the chase: this is where my hopes lie. The true, long-term, sustainable appreciation in the price XRP will come when the demand is there. Not demand from individuals who have a couple of grand to throw at the coin, but demand from financial institutions (and perhaps non-financial firms, too) who want to hold $50m worth, $200m worth, perhaps even $1b worth. If there are only 100b XRP in existence (and slightly less given that some portion is destroyed with every transaction), each token needs to be worth a hell of a lot more than $0.20 if hundreds or thousands of banks and companies want to transact with it.
Conclusion
So, each of these three potential catalysts might do something for the price, but it is XRP ADOPTION that will have the long-lasting impact. And the stupidity of phrases like "rockets to the moon" overlooks that the adoption may just take place gradually. To borrow the lexical idiocy I have been railing against, the rocket may be halfway to the moon before anybody realizes it has blasted off!
tl;dr SWELL and the escrow may each create a little momentum, but the key to any meaningful appreciation is the widespread adoption of XRP by corporate actors.