I know sentiment for the crypto markets are running high these days, but what about the price of Hive? Can we glimpse some possibilities for its future value from the technical data we have thus far?
I feel we can.
Opposite to most people's expectations, Hive has not shown strength yet since it was listed (apart from the initial pump at the day of listing, fizzling ever since.)
We have been downtrending with major impulses downwards, corrections moving up counter trend. The issue I see is that since the end of June we are in a major correction pattern of the last down impulse. This could be interpreted as a mere continuation pattern to the downside for Hive.
We had three major touches on the upside of said correction channel, even a fourth. All of the pumps have been shot down quickly and fizzled. We have also seen Hive's price barely move compared to that of BTC or ETH.
How long can this continue? Are we due for another leg down? Technicals might say so. We have come from an impulse down (I), moved into an ascending correction (C) and are possibly facing another impulse down (I).
If we do see another major impulse down it would complete the descending channel pattern with a third touch on the channel's lower end. If - after this impulse down - we do see a smaller descending channel form on the lower border of the macro descending, we have a strong possibility for a major reversal of Hive's macro trend, bringing us back to the beginning of the descending channel - possibly higher. Until we see a reversal pattern on the macro, confirmed by a smaller reversal pattern within it on a lower timeframe, all buys should be short-term only.
What else could happen? The descending channel could have already completed with its two touches and we could go up from here, instead of getting another impulse down. Considering how often we have been shot down though and how clear the structure is that we are seeing, I doubt Hive has found its bottom.
If you want to play it safe in the longterm you could accumulate Hive regardless and not sell if we get another impulse as there is a good chance we will get that reversal. Hodling for the midterm. The more audacious trader would wait for confirmation of the impulse down to sell, then look for the smaller descending channel on the bottom of the greater one to go long. Please note that this is the ideal scenario I see, not a guarantee.
