The HUI was down 2.84 points (-1.53%) with a close at 183.12. On the daily chart, the K line of the fast stochastic, which yesterday was in oversold territory, is now out of oversold territory and kissing the the D line but does not have negative crossover. The slow stochastic, which was rising yesterday, is flattening and remains in oversold territory. MACD is flat and is still in negative territory.
GLD was down -$0.21 (-0.18%) with a close at 115.82. On the dailly chart, the fast and slow stochastics are both rising. The slow stochastic is inching out of oversold territory. MACD is narrowing but remains in negative territory.
SLV was down -$0.18 (-1.2%) with a close at 14.87. On the daily chart, the fast stochastic is still rising. The slow stocastic is flat and barely out of oversold territory.
Today was all about the Bear and the spring of the Bull trap. The relief rally, which usually last 1-3 days, ended today. There were no hits of the daily target numbers. On the short term 30 minute chart we got two hits of the Bear target numbers first published back June 27th. The star of the day was 184.06 with an exact hit on the high of the 1:00 (13:00) bar and on the close of the 2:00 (14:00) bar. These hits confirm that the Bears are still in control and have been in control even during this relief rally. And this also confirms at least to me that the HUI trades in a very orderly fashion with perfect price discovery.
For tomorrow, look for the Bears to press the HUI down. The next daily target numbers for the Bears are 181.84; 176.18;170.62 and 167.86. In addition, there is still a gap at 169.44 that formed on December 23rd, that remains unfilled. For the Bulls, not much on the daily chart that last low at 177.40 on July 10th did serious damage. Perhaps, the Bulls could manage another Battle for 185.03?
So about tomorrow, July 14th, I have repeatedly posted that I believe that the HUI will hit a significant low between June 19th and July 14th before beginning a summer rally. From today's low of 182.86 to the gap at 169.44 is 13.42 points. Is it likely that we get there tomorrow - well - of course not. Anything is possible, but it looks like that significant low will be delayed. I still believe that if the Bears can gain traction and push the HUI below 182.86, that this down move has the potential to put the bottom in on the HUI. If the HUI breaks below the December low, then we might have to postpone any notion of a summer rally, but that is just a vague notion.
GLD filled the recent gap in the chart that formed on July 11th at 115.77. Both the metals look better than the HUI at this point. I do not trade GLD or SLV but cover them since they are so connected to the HUI. Just like the HUI leads on the way up, it can also lead on the way down. Today the HUI led the way down.
This remains a gambler's market, trades are small, short and have tight stop loss. Yesterday morning I closed long positions and this morning I went short.
These are just my thoughts and observations not advice etc. Please feel free to share your thoughts and comments, upvote, follow.
As for Friday, good luck and happy hunting.