Oh Wow has it been a fun few weeks.
Many people are just now getting into SteemMonsters and calling it to be the next big thing in digital gaming, while others are throwing in the towel a few weeks in and calling it quits. I can already tell that this thing is going to be one wild ride.
I have been following the discord and over the past couple of days it has gotten pretty heated within the trading room about what prices should be and whether or not it's too low or too high and free market and blah blah. I wanted to give my opinion on where I think we are at in the move and what I think the prices are going to fluctuate to and what I believe they should be.
I also want to show you something that really amazes the shit out of me and demonstrates how ALL MARKETS RHYME WITH ONE ANOTHER ESPECIALLY NEW MARKETS. You can directly compare and mimic this to any new ICO that hits the public markets. I will show you how below. I am not even going to tell you which stock this is or the time frame but I see this as being exactly where steemmonsters is right now.
You have the first flood of traders and buyers trying to make a buck. They all likely made money (although if they are holding now or buying their way out of it they are not making money which I have proven in the discord over and over. Prices are too low now) and have sold lots. The amount of cards and supply overtook the amount of players. Now we are in the area where WE WILL find an equilibrium of supply and demand.
Last night there were Legends going for under 10 STEEM and Golds still going under 1 SBD which is insane to me. The traders who were making money, can literally not be making money with NEW CARDS now.
So My opinion on this is we are somewhere in this bouncy price discovery area. Now ONE of TWO things are going to happen over the next 4-6 weeks.
Option 1: 15% chance
- These cards are worthless, the game folds, steemit does not embrace something that could elevate it to another level and steemmonsters drift off into the abyss and is a what could have been.
Option 2: 85% chance
- The demand comes in specifically for the epics, legends, and golds and withstands the traders and big boys who bought to much in the beginning and price stabilizes. Over the next couple of weeks as people start turning to packs because they can no longer get epics for 0.5 SBD anymore the price begins to rise because all the buyers right now are holding.
I believe that you are going to see Option 2 and in a major way. Usually the first push into highs is 100% not THE HIGH in any single market place. The current problem is people are fielding packs without buying packs because it is cheaper. That will stop.
Current Prices I have seen are as follows:
Commons - 0.04 Steem
Rares - 0.2 Steem
Epics - 0.45 Steem
Legends - 8-10 STEEM
Golds Commons and Rares - 1-3 STEEM
Gold Epics - ????
Gold Legends - ????
The above prices that are 100% out of whack, are the Epics. You CANNOT get Epics and Legends anymore much less golds. Look at the drop rates below:
I have been following the blockchain, there are people buying 10-20 packs of cards and getting.....3 EPICs. The prices here are laughable if STEEMMONSTERS isn't going to ZERO. the gold cards in my eyes have so much value because there ARE NOT MANY of them and you could be able to enter into some BIG MONEY games with only gold cards?
These developers are smart, they are not dumb. If they are dumb, it goes to zero, if they aren't this thing catapults again.
So Here is what I think you will see when they stabilize before the next rise (I do not know how long this will take)
Value I see:
Commons - 0.1 Steem
Rares - 0.5 Steem
Epics - 1-2 Steem
Legends - 20 STEEM
Golds Commons and Rares - 2-8 STEEM
Gold Epics - 15-20 STEEM
Gold Legends - ??? (I have no idea considering there is none)
I am looking to buy earth and light monsters as well as gold monsters...at the panic discount of course.
And I don't want Commons or Rares, I will just buy packs for that shit.
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