Unfortunately I am unable to see anything more than a short term bounce in the near term though I would like to, even though the economic model will change soon and inflation will be reduced. We will see a lot of additional selling pressure from power down time reduced from 2 years to 3 months and many of us still not understand that prices do not move magically but someone has to buy STEEM that is currently for sale to change the supply/demand equilibrium.
I have been observing poloniex order book for a few days which looks more or less like this:
| BUY ORDERS | BTC VALUE (GROUPED) |
|---|---|
| 0.0001 | 33.11935785 |
| 0.0000 | 44.36478460 |
| SELL ORDERS | BTC VALUE (GROUPED) |
|---|---|
| 0.0002 | 25.00504923 |
| ... | ... |
| 0.0042 | 976.42437189 |
| 0.0043 | 978.95529724 |
| 0.0044 | 979.89259259 |
| 0.0045 | 1006.10998484 |
these are buy/sell orders in the order book grouped to 4 decimals and BTC values only are considered. It is visible that it would take ~1000 BTC or ~750 000 USD to move STEEM to 0.0045 in a single transaction but as we know the real number is 5-10x when you include the short term sellers. This realistically means that a group of people needs to put roughly 5 000 000 - 10 000 000 USD on a table to buy large amounts of STEEM to be able to change the trend.
Why would anyone want to risk this amount having in mind a lot of liquidity that will be added soon? I am not encouraging anyone to abandon the ship, I am here for reasons other than the STEEM price. This is just my view that one needs to consider the information that I described here for the next months to come.