The 144th Kentucky Derby will take place on May 5th at Churchill Downs in Louisville. With around $200 million expected to be bet on that day’s card, we wanted to prepare you to take a chunk of that home with you. So get ready to make your bets by reading up on the 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders.
We’ll start by discussing My Boy Jack.
Meet My Boy Jack
My Boy Jack, by Creative Cause, has been very busy with ten races in his short career. In his past six, five of which have been graded stakes races, the three-year-old colt is 3-0-2 with one disappointing seventh place finish back in November in the Breeders Cup Juvenile race (ran on turf).
Included in his last three, My Boy Jack has won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes, finished a very close 3rd in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, and won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, My Boy Jack solidified his case for the Kentucky Derby with the Lexington Stakes victory, giving him the needed points to qualify.
My Boy Jack is a late-running horse, meaning his rider waits patiently until around the final turn to make their move. His style reminds me of Commanding Curve, runner-up to California Chrome in 2014.
The recent win in Lexington is another big step up for this horse, who was primarily ran on turf in late 2017, but he has show that he can handle this surface extremely well.
Key Races
- 2018 Lexington Stakes: Breaking from the far outside post, My Boy Jack was 10 lengths off the slow pace halfway through the 1 1/16M race. Going 5-wide, he charged ahead to win and looked to still have plenty left in the tank for a longer race.
- 2018 Louisiana Derby: It’s hard to be impressed by a 3rd place finish without watching the race. But My Boy Jack had a tremendous race considering the circumstances. In the 1 1/8M race, My Boy Jack came charging from the back of the pack going 6-wide. He was not given space to come closer to the rail. The wide trip still left him less than a length from victory as he continued to gain ground.
Reasons to Doubt
When considering placing a bet on any horse, you should be aware of what could go wrong. My Boy Jack has been heavily raced, and while he has three weeks to recover, the Kentucky Derby will be his 11th race since June of 2017.
Pace and space are also big concerns. With a deep closer like My Boy Jack, the race has to play out in their favor to make up significant ground in a short amount of time. If the pace is slow at the outset of the race, a strong frontrunner can negate My Boy Jack’s closing speed by saving their energy for the end of the race, and there are at least two horses that have this capability (Magnum Moon and Mendelsohn). Spacing is also an issue with a 20-horse field. If he is forced to swing 7-wide during the final turn, he is running a longer race than the other horses, giving an advantage to the frontrunners.
Other Consideration
My Boy Jack is a mudder. If the ground is wet or there’s a sloppy track, you have to consider him a serious contender if not the overall favorite in this race.
Early Kentucky Derby Prediction
Since I’m forcing myself to make early predictions after watching every Kentucky Derby prep race once or twice, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that My Boy Jack will finish second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Stay tuned for more information and predictions to help you have a winning ticket on Derby Day.
Photo credits: Zoe Metz/Clockers' Corner
Author: @MichaelLuchies
Editor: @bacchist
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