The 144th Kentucky Derby will take place on May 5th at Churchill Downs in Louisville. With around $200 million expected to be bet on that day’s card, we wanted to prepare you to take a chunk of that home with you. So get ready to make your bets by reading up on the 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders.
In our third horse breakdown for the derby, we’re going to take a look at Mendelssohn.
Meet Mendelssohn
Do you like to travel? Well, so does this three-year-old colt. Mendelssohn has already raced in Ireland, England, Great Britain, the United States (California), and Dubai. After a very impressive win in Dubai, Mendelssohn is headed back to the U.S. to compete at Churchill Downs.
Unlike a few of his fellow Kentucky Derby peers, Mendelssohn is not a sleeper and did not come cheap to his owners. In fact, Mendelssohn was the highest priced yearling of 2016 at $3M and looks to be worth every penny. Under the training of Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, Mendelssohn has won three straight, including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race on turf in November of 2017. While his past on turf may be alarming to some, Mendelssohn, a half-brother of Beholder and son of Scat Daddy (Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby participant), was bred to race on the dirt.
Mendelssohn is a frontrunner who likes to set the pace or closely stalk the leader and then pull away from the rest of the pack going into the final turn. As you’ll see in the key races shown below, he has not been asked for much from his rider, meaning his best race could still be ahead of him. But Mendelssohn will not be the favorite on race day simply because of the bad performances of previous UAE Derby winners. The nine previous winners who have competed in the Derby have not finished better than 6th since 2000. But if he can repeat his performance from the UAE Derby, it may be hard for any horse to catch him.
Key Races
- 2018 UAE Derby: Results in the UAE Derby, a Grade 2 stakes race, have not translated into success at the Kentucky Derby. However, this is the most impressive performance by any horse in this year’s Derby field. When looking at the speed figures from this race and comparing them to the rest of the field, it’s important to note that the commentator mentioned during the final stretches of the race, “Ryan Moore couldn’t be holding him any slower.” That’s right, Mendelssohn won the $2M stakes race by nearly 20 lengths without Moore pulling out the whip or asking him for more. This horse wanted to give more than his rider was asking him for, which is impressive to say the least.
- 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf: The Kentucky Derby is obviously not running on grass, so of what relevance is a turf race? In my opinion, a lot.
Mendelssohn, in a large field of 14, was given the tough assignment of the #1 post, which can be a difficult place to start even for a frontrunner. He had trouble getting out of the gate and hopped awkwardly for a moment before correcting and moving towards the front of the pack. Sitting in third going into the final turn, Ryan Moore and Mendelssohn were trapped on the rail until a little bit of space opened up on the outside. He took advantage of that opportunity and pulled away for the win. This race showed that even in non-ideal conditions, Moore and Mendelssohn together can find clever ways to win, and that this horse has the grit needed to compete at Churchill Downs.
Reasons to Doubt
As mentioned, UAE Derby winners often struggle in the Kentucky Derby. Mendelssohn has also traveled around the world in his short career, which can be taxing on a young racehorse. With other frontrunners, I would be concerned with the post they draw and a large derby field, but Mendelssohn has shown to recover from a bad start and the ability to beat a large field.
Other Consideration
British jockey Ryan Moore has never competed in the Kentucky Derby, which is something he stated is on his bucket list. The 34-year-old has shown he can win big races, so picturing him in the winners circle is not out of the question, but we have seen jockeys like Calvin Borel use their knowledge of and experience at Churchill Downs to outperform better horses.
Early Kentucky Derby Prediction
Still more than two weeks from the derby, I’m making my early predictions based on what I’ve seen so far from each horse in the 30+ prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Mendelssohn is my current hands-down top pick to win the 144th Kentucky Derby. Things may change and we’ll see how he adjusts after making the trip to Churchill, but if you plan on betting this year’s race, you must give this colt a real look before placing your bets.
Don’t stop here! Read more analysis on the top Kentucky Derby contenders here:
Photo credits: Mathea Kelly/Dubai Racing Club
Author: @MichaelLuchies
Editor: @bacchist
Are you interested in writing for the BRO Sports™ team? Do you like talking about sports all day, every day?
Join us on Discord!
© 2018 BRO Sports™ Network