The 144th Kentucky Derby will take place on May 5th at Churchill Downs in Louisville. With around $200 million expected to be bet on that day’s card, we wanted to prepare you to take a chunk of that home with you. So get ready to make your bets by reading up on the 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders.
For our second horse preview, we’re going to look at the point leader and one of the favorites going into the derby, Magnum Moon.
Meet Magnum Moon
Undefeated in just four races, Magnum Moon is among the top early favorites and a horse you need to keep an eye on come May 5th. The Todd Pletcher trained colt has stepped up in class each of his past three races and has handled each field with ease, including his recent victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. He’ll have three weeks to rest before the Kentucky Derby, which will be his shortest break between races in his young career.
Magnum Moon is a frontrunner who has had success setting a moderate to slow pace and saving as much energy as possible until the final stretch. No competitor has yet been able to disrupt this gameplan, and owners Robert and Lawana Low are now just one two-minute race away from cashing in big on their investment of $380,000 to purchase the colt as a yearling. The high price tag comes from Magnum Moon’s pedigree, which includes Malibu Moon and A.P. Indy.
The lightly raced horse was held back from racing as a two-year-old because of swollen ankles. The move has paid off well, and jockey Luis Saez seems to be a perfect fit for his running style.
Although he would’ve qualified for the derby without a win in Arkansas, the Grade 1 victory has proven to fans and bettors that Magnum Moon is up to the challenge to compete with the best three-year-olds in the world. But is he experienced enough?
Key Races
- 2018 Arkansas Derby: Coming out of post 6, Magnum Moon avoided getting trapped and moved out to the front of the 9-horse field. The horse was not pushed by Saez and was even slowed down by the rider in the early stages. After the final turn, Saez briefly picked up the pace and then eased up down the final stretch as the race had already been won. This is key, as I believe that Magnum Moon could have opened up a much wider lead if pressed.
- 2018 Rebel Stakes: Unlike the Arkansas Derby, Magnum Moon did not control the pace in the Rebel Stakes. He raced slightly back in third, at times going three-wide until the final turn. When asked for more by Saez he responded and won by around three lengths.
Reasons to Doubt: The Curse
As mentioned, Magnum Moon did not race as a two-year-old. And if you’re looking for a Kentucky Derby winner who did not race as a two-year-old, you need to look back to Apollo in 1892.
Frontrunners like Magnum Moon rely on taking a favorable position very early in the race. Although he was forced to go three-wide in the Rebel Stakes, he will face much more difficult challenges in Louisville With a 20-horse field, if Magnum Moon does not draft a good post in the 3-9 range, he may have trouble breaking free to the leading position at the start.
Controlling the pace is also very important for Magnum Moon, who was able to lead a dreadfully low pace in the Arkansas Derby (23:34 ¼ mile) and save every ounce of energy to pull far away from the filed after the final turn. If Mendelsshon, another frontrunner, sets a faster pace, Magnum Moon may be forced off of his type of race, and either have to keep up with an early fast pace or come from behind.
Other Consideration
While a capable jockey at Gulfstream and Calder Park, Luis Saez has no Kentucky Derby victories to his name. There may be a jockey change prior to the derby.
Early Kentucky Derby Prediction
My early prediction for Magnum Moon is a third place finish. He will be tested with a fierce group of horses with other frontrunners challenging him early. Magnum Moon is capable of winning the race, but it will require a perfect post position and ride from whatever jockey gets the opportunity to saddle him.
Don’t stop here! Read more analysis on the top Kentucky Derby contenders here:
Photo credits: Coady Photo/Oaklawn Park
Author: @MichaelLuchies
Editor: @bacchist
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