The 144th Kentucky Derby will take place on May 5th at Churchill Downs in Louisville. With around $200 million expected to be bet on that day’s card, we wanted to prepare you to take a chunk of that home with you. So get ready to make your bets by reading up on the 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders.
In our fifth horse breakdown for the derby, we’re going to take a look at one of the fastest and most mysterious horses in this race, Justify.
Meet Justify
Justify is a son of Scat Daddy, making him a half-brother of rival Mendelsson. He was purchased for $500K, $2.5M less than Mendelssohn, at the Keeneland September yearling sale in 2016.
In just three races, the Bob Baffert owner Justify has become the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby because of his impressive wins, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Stakes. Here’s a look at his past performance, courtesy of brisnet.com.
By looking at the speed figures (100, 104, 114), it’s clear that Justify is extremely fast. By taking a look at Justify in action on the track, it’s clear that he is a very large and powerful horse. A sloppy or wet track would likely not have an impact on the colt, and may even prove to give him an advantage.
Justify is a frontrunner that darts out to the front of the pack and somehow seems to only improve as the field enters the backstretch. He will attempt to be the only Kentucky Derby winner in history to win the race with only three prior races.
Key Races
- 2018 Santa Anita Derby: We have a single race to review for Justify – the 2018 Santa Anita Derby, a race in which Justify scored an incredible 114 BRIS Speed figure. He got in front of the pack early, kept a short distance between he and rival Bolt d’Oro, and then eased further ahead down the final stretch. For his effort, Bolt d’Oro earned a 110 BRIS Speed figure, which is the second highest figure of all contenders in the Derby. Jockey Mike Smith did not have to prompt Justify heavily to overcome the challenge by Bolt d’Oro. This was an impressive victory.
Dick Powell from TwinSpires.com wrote:
“What was so impressive about Justify in the Santa Anita Derby was that he showed he can finish his race even when going slower in the early stages than ever before. A closer look at his BRIS Pace ratings bear this out – 100, 105, 117. Unlike most dirt horses, he was applying constant pace pressure without any signs of exertion.”
Reasons to Doubt
The biggest knock on Justify is his lack of experience. If what little we’ve seen of him so far is accurate and sustainable, Justify may not only be a future Kentucky Derby champion, he may be a Horse of the Year and Hall of Fame candidate.
Like rival Magnum Moon, Justify is also facing the curse of Apollo. No horse since 1892 has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old. This athlete has the tools, we’ll see if inexperience comes into play on May 5th.
Other Consideration
Two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Mike Smith will saddle Justify, giving bettors yet another reason to believe in Justify. Also, owner Bob Baffert knows what is takes to win the Derby with four wins of his own.
Early Kentucky Derby Prediction
With over two weeks left until the derby, I am still doing additional research and shifting around my picks. However, I will have a hard time convincing myself that Justify is not a top three horse in the 2018 Kentucky Derby, even with his lack of experience. The pedigree, speed, and power are all there. At this moment, I am going to predict a win for Justify (bumping down my prediction for My Boy Jack and Mendelssohn), beating half-brother Mendelssohn by a length.
Don’t stop here! Read more analysis on the top Kentucky Derby contenders here:
Photo credit: Benoit Photography
Author: @MichaelLuchies
Editor: @bacchist
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