The 144th Kentucky Derby will take place on May 5th at Churchill Downs in Louisville. With around $200 million expected to be bet on that day’s card, we wanted to prepare you to take a chunk of that home with you. So get ready to make your bets by reading up on the 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders.
In our fourth horse breakdown for the derby, we’re going to take a look at another favorite, Good Magic.
Meet Good Magic
Good Magic, trained by Chad Brown, is a Kentucky bred colt by Hard Spun. In his five races, Good Magic has two wins, two second place finishes, and one third. Among his wins is the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Grade 1 Stakes, and he recently took the $1M Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes to solidify his spot near the top of the Kentucky Derby point leaders.
A son of 2-time Horse of the Year Curlin, Good Magic has always been a highly regarded colt who was purchased for $1M in 2016 as a yearling. With his dad finishing 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and winning the Preakness, his genes say he has all it takes to compete in the Derby. Curlin was also a horse known for his stamina, which is important to note since the Kentucky Derby tests the stamina these young and inexperienced three-year-olds. But bloodlines can only take you so far.
Good Magic relies on exiting his post quickly to get near the front, and then stalk a 2-4 horses from the leader. Before the final turn is where Good Magic relies on his speed to take down the leader and then hold on for dear life. While successful so far, hasn’t dominated in any race nor separated himself from the other contenders.
Key Races
- 2018 Blue Grass Stakes: Good Magic ran a near perfect race in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Jockey Jose Ortiz held him just off the pace until after the 1/2M when they made their move to challenge Flameaway for first. Good Magic held on but did not pull away from the field. Sporting Chance, who was later disqualified for obstructing a fellow horse, looked to be the stronger horse that day, but couldn’t straighten out to give Good Magic a real challenge. Good Magic earned a 98 BRIS Speed rating, which tied his rating from the Fountain of Youth Stakes, a race he finished in third place. This was a weak field, and while he won without much of a challenge, I was not impressed by this effort.
- 2018 Fountain of Youth Stakes: Good Magic gets off to a nearly perfect start and stalks from 4th place in the early stages of the race. In the backstretch, Good Magic waits patiently until they approach the final turn. As Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power battle for the lead, Good Magic completely stalls, and finishes a very disappointing 3rd as the 3/5 favorite. One important thing to note about this race is that Good Magic was coming off of a three-month layoff. However, I do not feel like he stepped up his performance enough for the Blue Grass Stakes to justify his ranking as one of the top contenders in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Reasons to Doubt
From his poor showing in the Fountain of Youth Stakes to his low BRIS Speed figures compared to the rest of the field (Ex: Audible scored a 107 last race compared to Good Magic’s 98), I have a lot of doubt that Good Magic will live up to the hype. He is also going to have his hands full with other horses with a similar style. Stalking the leaders only works if the leaders haven’t separated themselves 5-6 lengths in the backstretch, which is what happened during the Fountain of Youth.
Early Kentucky Derby Prediction
Still more than two weeks from the derby, I’m making my early predictions based on what I’ve seen so far from each horse in the 30+ prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. I think Good Magic has a bad chance at finishing in the money in the Kentucky Derby. He lacks the top-end speed needed and the race may develop very similarly to the Fountain of Youth Stakes with frontrunners Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon leaving Good Magic in their dust. I predict a 10th place finish for Good Magic.
Don’t stop here! Read more analysis on the top Kentucky Derby contenders here:
Photo credit: Scott Paulick, 2017
Author: @MichaelLuchies
Editor: @bacchist
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