We are less than three weeks away from the 144th Kentucky Derby, which will take place on May 5th in Louisville Kentucky. On that day, nearly $200 million will be bet. We’re here to prepare you to take home your piece of that money with a successful bet, and we’re going to start by giving you a full breakdown of each major contender in the race.
this breakdown, we’re going to take a look at one of the top favorites in the race, Audible.
Meet Audible
Audible, the son of Into Mischief, has won four straight races, including the $1M Grade 1 Florida Derby. The 3-year-old is expected to be one of the top favorites on the day of the Derby.
The colt is trained by last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Audible was purchased for a reasonable $175,000 in 2016 at Saratoga, and later sold again as a 2-year-old for $500,000. He raced three times as a 2-year-old before stepping up in class to test his chances of making the Derby.
Audible is ridden by John Velazquez, who will always have a special place in my heart after winning the 2011 Kentucky Derby aboard Animal Kingdom. I was there to witness the race and hit a very nice exacta bet. Velazquez knows this track well and is able to get the most out of the horse he saddles, and in this race, he’s on top of a talented and versatile athlete.
In five total races, Audible is 4-0-1 with a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 stakes victory among his accomplishments. The competition he faced in those races did not include any of the other top contenders in the Derby, but his overall performance, especially in his last two outings, has stood out.
Looking at the free past performance statistics provided by Brisnet.com, you can see that Audible has progressed nicely from race-to-race. His speed ratings have steadily improved, capped by a whopping 107 BRIS Speed rating in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. This is always a good sight for handicappers looking for a horse to continue to improve in the biggest race of their lives.
Audible is primarily a frontrunner, but has shown that he can race off of the pace, which is sure to be crowded with a half-dozen talented frontrunners expected to run on May 5th.
Key Races
- 2018 Holy Bull: Starting in the 10 slot, Audible floated out wide to start the race. He regrouped to quickly take second place in the race which did not get off to a fast start (23.59 at 1/4M). Audible wore done the leader and then held off and pulled away from Free Drop Bully to win by 5 lengths. It was an easy and impressive victory.
- 2018 Florida Derby: In the Grade 1 Florida Derby, there was a very fast early pace at 21.95 through the first quarter-mile. Meters before the final turn, Audible sat in 8th, waiting for the pace to slow down for his chance to catch up to the rest of the field. In the middle of the final turn, Audible showed great burst and pulled away handily. The horse still floated back and forth in the backstretch, but he was clear of any rivals at that point.
This race showed that Audible and jockey Velazquez have more than one strategy they can employ on Derby day. If the pace is fast, expect Audible to sit back and wait to make his move. It the pace is slow, expect Audible to be at the front the entire way. This is a luxury to have in a Derby contender.
Reasons to Doubt
I don’t ever want someone to judge me based on my parents, but in horse racing, the makeup of a horse’s parents is extremely important. Audible’s genes say that winning a 10-furlong race against top competition might not be a good bet. His sire Into Mischief has not sired a single horse who has won a stakes race at over 9 furlongs. He may just be better built for a 9-furlong race. He will have a fantastic career, but if that career will include a Kentucky Derby victory is very much in doubt.
Other Consideration
In the early goings of a race, Audible tends to get a little loose and start wide of the pack, requiring a correction to come back closer to the rail and the leaders of the race. This has not proven to be a problem in races like the Holy Bull, but it would be devastating in the Derby.
Audible also drifted during the Florida Derby but was able to recover. Every inch matters, and this horse’s odd approach out of the gate could force him to exert extra energy from the start, which could hurt his chances as a frontrunner and a colt with questions about his stamina and durability in a long race.
If Audible does not drift and is able to run the perfect race, his speed figures (105, 107) in his last two outings could be enough to place him near or at the top of the standings when the race is over. If he does drift, he could lose ground or obstruct a rival, which could result in a costly penalty.
Early Kentucky Derby Prediction
Audible is a strong horse in a field of very strong contenders. He has the skill to win the race, but unfortunately, I do think his lack of distance in his bloodline will come into play, and as they come down the stretch, his rivals with more stamina will pass him by. Audible finishes outside the money, coming in 6th place in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Because of his bloodlines, expect to get Audible on your betting ticket at a discounted price. I would not recommend putting all of your faith in him, but he has the strength, skill, and jockey required, just maybe not the stamina.
Don’t stop here! Read more analysis on the top Kentucky Derby contenders here:
Photo credit: Coglianese Photos/Lauren King
Author: @MichaelLuchies
Editor: @bacchist
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