How to maximize my profit while playing Splinterlands?
Should I max out the reward cards by sweeping the market?
Is it worth to invest in reward card?
Introduction
Hello everyone, have you ever experienced the same struggles in making decisions like the above hesitation? I guess you just found the right post for you. It is definitely an interesting topic for every Splinterland player.
In the followings, I will share some of my thoughts on the current market which is also my preparations in reward cards for the coming years. Let's jump to the background and some research first!!
Market Research
- The numbers indicated a stable growth of active players since September of 2021 till the end of the year. And then the base of active players stabled around 400k per day.
- There is no sign for a decline of active player in the coming future but a constant and stable growth since the release of Chaos Legion.
- Therefore, we make the assumption that Splinterland will keep on the right track and attract more new player with the hope of growing the community with 800k active players (which is double) in the early of 2023.
Credit to @peak-monsters, the above table was generate from the data of PeakMonsters.
- There are approximately 30% of total reward cards printed.
- Based on the calculation, the total number of chaos legion reward cards are 20x of previous edition of reward cards.
(Take the Harklaw as an example, total BCX: 56881/28.44% = 200k in total; while the total BCX of Ancient Lich was 10k which was fully printed out. As a result, the Chaos edition of reward cards are 20 times more than previous ones. The logic applies to all other rarity of cards.) - There's still a long way to go through the whole process, hopefully all the cards will be printed by the end of 2022.
Thanks @KioKIzz for providing the data on SplinterStats regarding the remaining reward edition cards for Splinterlands.
- To maxmize every single dollar you invested, we should also put the SPS Airdrop point into the consideration.
- In other words, the rate of CP/DEC is also a considering factor (will be discussed below).
- Currently 11782 points gives you 1 SPS per day referring to Splintercards, Credit to @Tehox.
My Thoughts
1. Conversion rate from DEC to CP
The DEC/CP ratio is 1.65 for Gargoya since you cost 33 dec to purchase 20 power.
The DEC/CP ratio is 3 for Oshannus since you cost 1500 dec to purchase 500 power.
- Based on my observation, the conversion rate of DEC/CP is approximately 1.5 to 3 in current market. As the opportunity cost of purchasing cards, we are exchanging the SPS Airdrop point between DEC to power using the conversion rate mentioned above.
- Noted that the DEC/CP conversion rate will never equals to 1 in the market, since nobody will sell a card at burn value while paying extra market fee.
- As a result, the priority goes to those reward cards with lower DEC/CP rate while we are making decisions to maximize the benefit.
2. Future value of reward cards
The price of previous reward card has already stonk just simply because of the scarcity in total BCX comparing to the player base, although they are not very powerful or useful in some cases.
- The point is that we are experiencing the same situation that the old players faced last year. The active players are far less than that of today and the legendary cards were selling at floor price.
- Although the total number of reward cards are way more than the active players (including bots since they also need to rent cards/ build deck), the current reward cards would probably stonk again once the player base has an exponential growth in the coming years regardless the abilities but simply because of the demand on power.
- Feeling similar, Huh? As a result, the usefulness and ability of card is also a factor that need to consider instead of DEC/CP conversion rate only. (I like URAEUS and BILJKA most)
3. Concern of current market price
Based on my understanding, the market price of reward cards could be shown in this way. The gap between Price and Burn value is the premium you paid in form of Dec for Power.
- The current market is facing oversupply due to various reasons, like bot farms. (I guess you must know who is Miller)
- The price will constantly get close to the burn value from time to time, and then grow up once 100% are printed.
- I can not predict the future precisely, but I can say that the DEC/CP conversion rate will eventually down to 1.2 approximately to a large extend as the time goes by.
Conclusion
Based on the above findings, we got these conclusions:
- To maximize the profit during SPS Airdrop period, put the DEC/CP conversion rate into consideration as those will become your opportunity cost if you purchase.
- Be patient and buy the when the price is close to burn value.
- The market is oversupply currently, don't be panic and we are experiencing the same situation that the pioneer faced last year.
- The price will eventually go up if your believe in Splinterlands and hodl the assets.
Giveaway Time
Rules:
- Leave a comment below to grab the first ticket (specify if it is not the same as here), like the post to get one more ticket.
- You will be enrolled into both raffles, while you can only win once.
- The winner will be picked when this post pays out in 7 days.
- I will tag all participants in the next raffle post if you do not want this just state it in comment.
The End
If you want to play Splinterlands, please feel free to click the Referral Link to enter my referral code. And I will transfer 100 DEC to you to help you with renting some starter cards to win the battle for more rewards.
Upvotes, Follows, and Tips are always OPTIONAL but highly appreciated. Your support is definitely the motivation for me to create more interesting and fun content.
Once again, thank you for sparing time to read my Blog and hope you can have more insights.
Disclaimer: The content of this blog is purely sharing my thoughts and opinions and also not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment products in Splinterlands.