The latest airdrop just hit, and it looks AWESOME!
The airdrop rate jumped to 1 BCX per 500 airdrop points. That number was right in line with what we should have expected based on the math published here
@nealmcspadden/splinterlands-card-airdrop-math-should-you-be-buying-packs
by @nealmcspadden @nealmcspadden
In the comments I asked Neal to further extrapolate his math for what we can expect as airdrop rates for the next airdrops and what sort of dollar value we might dare to assign those airdrop points.
After leaving the comment, my brain wouldn't stop running and I decided to do a rough version of it myself. This math will probably look pretty inelegant compared with what Neal did, but maybe after I'm done, I'll be able to take a nap.
I assume that if you're reading this post then you know what airdrop points are. I will explain for clarity. When you buy a pack of Chaos Legion in Splinterlands you receive a pack of 5 cards and 1 airdrop point which will apply to all future airdrops for the set. You can buy that same pack of cards on the secondary market from a site like hive-engine to receive the 5 cards for a lower price, but you will not receive an airdrop point. Alternately you can buy a pack from Splinterlands for the airdrop point, tokenize the pack instead of opening or holding it and sell it at the same lower price where people are buying on the secondary market.
We have some excellent tools on splintercards.com for what the 5 cards will be worth on average if we open the pack now, but we don't know what the airdrop point is worth.
The first airdrop was Dr Blight which is not available to open in packs. The airdrop rate was 1 BCX per 50 airdrop points and that number will not be helpful for deriving a pattern.
The second airdrop was Baakjira released at a rate of 1 BCX per 300 airdrop points.
The third airdrop was Uriel released at a rate of 1 BCX per 300 airdrop points.
Baakjira and Uriel airdrops were given at completion of the phase 2 sale.
The fourth airdrop was Lira released at a rate of 1 BCX per 350 airdrop points.
The fifth airdrop was Iza released at a rate of 1 BCX per 350 airdrop points.
The sixth airdrop was Grum released at a rate of 1 BCX per 350 airdrop points.
Lira, Iza and Grum airdrops were given after completion of the first day of the general sale eclipsed 6 million total packs sold. The supply of these 3 cards is higher and is anticipated to remain higher than the other legendary cards in the set suggesting that these cards were given too liberally in the airdrop.
The seventh airdrop was Spirit Hoarder released at a rate of 1 BCX per 500 airdrop points. This card was released after the Chaos legion sale eclipsed 7 million packs.
The eighth airdrop will be Carnage Titan a legendary dragon monster. We do not yet have official numbers for the release rate on Carnage Titan but inquiring minds would like to know. After Carnage Titan we anticipate a legendary summoner from each splinter. The legendary summoners from Untamed were pretty spectacular and very valuable compared to the monsters.
In order to visualize what the future airdrop numbers might be, I think it may be valuable to look at what the airdrop numbers might have been if the prior airdrops had all come 1 at a time or if they had been more conservative with the airdrop rate for airdrops 4, 5 and 6. I don't have the math to support the numbers that I came to but looking at the chart some of these numbers sort of intrinsically make sense.
So, if airdrop numbers increase by 50 per airdrop then we can expect to receive about 6 legendary summoners for every 725 airdrop points.
If airdrop numbers increase by 100 per airdrop then we can expect to receive about 6 legendary summoners for every 950 airdrop points.
I realize that I'm not showing my math. Common core elementary school math teachers are rolling over in their graves.
Next step, how much are those legendary summoners going to be worth?
Using the Untamed legendary summoners as analogs we can add up their values and average them for what the next summoners might be worth. The average price for an Untamed legendary summoner is $269.43 but we're going to have 10 times as many Chaos Legion summoners, so we should expect them to be worth less to some extent. The most helpful comparison that we have is the 1 legendary Chaos Legion summoner that was initially released with the set.
Quix the Devious is available for $32.15 and has been available for under $30 on occasion. One comparison that I saw suggested on YouTube was that if Quix is going for $30 and Camila is going for $60 then maybe we could apply a similar multiple to the other Untamed legendary summoners to estimate what the new Chaos Legion summoners will be worth initially. I think it was Aftersound that brought this up and he puts out excellent content for anyone that's interested. His stuff is available here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtzMmOwlZdSCSA2RvuLza7w
@aftersound
The Untamed legendary summoners fit into 3 groups for their prices.
Camila is $60
Mimosa, Lir and Chanseus range in price from $131.99 - $148
average is $141
Llama, Yodin and Kitty range from $450 - $511
average is $487
We'll call these prices small medium and big for my next spreadsheet. If the new Chaos legion summoners are worth about half of their Untamed counterparts then they might be worth about $30 which is basically the price of Quix, $70 or $244 on the high end.
If you need 950 airdrop points to get about 6 legendary summoners and those summoners are only worth about the same as Quix, then that's
6 x $30 = $180 divided by 950 airdrop points or $0.189 per airdrop point.
If that's the case then you're better off buying Chaos packs on the secondary market and skipping airdrops, or just buying singles.
If you only need 725 airdrop points to get about 6 legendary summoners and those summoners go big like Llama, Yodin and Kitty then:
6 x $244 = $1,464 divided by 725 airdrop points or $2.019 per airdrop point.
If that's the case then you should buy as many Chaos Legion packs as you can on Splinterlands, flip them on the secondary market and go back for more because buying airdrop points like that will cost you a little under a dollar. Chances are that it's somewhere in between.
I showed some math that time and here's another chart
Based on the numbers that I came up with for this exercise, I anticipate that the 6 incoming Chaos Legion summoners will settle into a price range around $70 in the short to medium term with some being worth a fair bit less and some being worth a good bit more. If this is the case, then airdrop points are probably worth about 50 cents. The best time to buy airdrop points was probably during the first day of the general sale where you would have paid something like 60 or 70 cents per airdrop point and you would have already derived some value from those airdrop points in the last 4 airdrops.
I think that my upcoming purchases will be mostly singles but I'm still closely following the price of packs and the estimated value of those packs. If the price of packs goes over $3.40 on the secondary market, then I'll try to buy some more airdrop points. If their price goes over $3.80 then I'm all in.
I would love to hear your comments. Do you think these numbers seem reasonable? Am I just talking out of my butt? I would love to see someone take this on with some more rigorous math.
Thanks for reading. I'll see you in the game. If you like this stuff then feel free to check out my other blog posts, like and follow.