How Silicon Valley is making Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030.
Tony Seba’s talk focuses on market disruptions caused by exponential technology improvement, business model innovation, and disruptive product design enabled by this convergence. His new book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation” projects that by 2030:
– All new energy will be provided by solar or wind.
– The architecture of energy will flip from centralized, command-and-control, secretive, and extractive to distributed, mobile, intelligent and participatory.
– Electric Utilities as we know them will be obsolete.
– Oil will be obsolete.
– Nuclear will be obsolete.
– Natural Gas will be obsolete.
– Coal will be obsolete.
– All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.
The technology and market trends that are leading to this $12 trillion/year disruption are well underway.
-The global solar market has grown at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 41% since 2000.
-The cost of Solar PV has decreased by a factor of 222X since 1970.
– Solar has improved its relative cost position by 2,900X relative to nuclear 3,200 relative to natural gas since 1970 and 1,294 times relative to petroleum.
-Unsubsidized utility scale solar is already cheaper than nuclear coal and diesel.
-Unsubsidized rooftop solar will be cheaper than the cost of transmission making central generation obsolete
This is the video of a keynote titled “”Clean Disruption: Why Energy and Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030”
Just like the PC, the Internet, and the cell phone disrupted the old paradigm of information, computing and telecommunications, a new architecture of energy is transforming the century-old centralized, resource-based, utility-centric energy model with a distributed, mobile, knowledge-based, and user-centric model. Homes, buildings, and cars are no longer passive energy consumers but adaptive learning systems with the ability to generate, store, manage, and transmit power intelligently. The implications are far-reaching: conventional energy sources (oil, nuclear, natural gas, and coal), the internal combustion engine, and the utility business models are on the cusp of disruption. Assets will be stranded and conventional energy portfolios will meltdown. This is not in the future. This is now.
Full video: 