what if, they don't approve it? Do you got any backup plan or have a second thought on this? I guess didn't and I've spent a lot of time thinking what could be possible reason it won't get approved and to find out those you need to read it.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Filled and Progress so far
Many of Bitcoin Spot ETF's have been filed since last two months including BlackRock world largest assets manager worth $9 Trillion is included with 5 others.
They all are got approved by SEC which is a first Good outcome.. now they'll review it in the coming time and we all will know if it's going to be rejected or passed.
So far, Bloomberg Analysts see a 65% chance a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF will launch this year, up from 50% previously ~ source.
And what could be 35% other reason it might get rejected? Let's talk about that ahead.
1. US and China: Politics Behind ETFs
Since the Beginning of this year we've seen US being anti Crypto while China being more friendly and opening gates for investors.
Now these Bitcoin Spot ETF's in US brings some politics into this matter. The possible reason to expect less is US will simply not let ETFs get approved due to the fresh cash flow, money it will bring into the market.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Could Bring $30B in New Demand, Crypto Trader NYDIG Says. ~ source.
And I see china have more upper hand on crypto nowadays.. make me believe US won't let those tradfi investors or wall street money flows into crypto at any cost.
On the other hand; US government clearly said they're going to sell Bitcoins in coming time while also they want to have more control in the market and trying to shake out things.
So what could be the other reason?
SEC is Still Going After Crypto Exchanges
This is one of thing I've been watching lately since "XRP Isn't a security" Garry is bringing baseless statement against crypto and they've been going more harsh on CEX exchanges.
Like SEC said to CEO of Coinbase to delist all coins except Bitcoin and I think there's a bullish side of this statement "maybe sec is planning to approve ETF" that could be only reason why they want other coins to get delist and Bitcoin stays like that since ETFs and Coinbase is going to be a gateway to it and they don't want other coins to get more traction but this is just my assumption.
SEC is anti Crypto for sure who don't want any exchange to lead and they're already chasing binance, Coinbase at the same time if anything goes wrong in the coming time before ETFs launch they might not approve it based on those events.
Wrapping Up...
This is why I believe there's still chances ETFs won't get approved as you can also see Bloomberg Analysts also said "65%" chances of ETFs getting launch and the other 35% could be based on thing's I've shared above.
Also there are some news sources creating speculation about $ETH ETFs is coming but correct time will reveal it.
I'd be glad to know your thoughts or perspective behind this and feel free to share your possible reason behind Bitcoin Spot ETFs getting rejected in comment.
